Hope and Anxiety: Tehran Reacts to Trump Victory

Shortly after it was announced that Donald Trump had won the US presidential election, a large number of Iranians rushed to Trump’s daughter Ivanka’s Instagram page to post jokes and other comments. They appealed to her to talk to her father and persuade him to leave Iran alone and keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — also known as the nuclear deal — in place. Some people also commented that they intended to ask Trump for his daughter’s hand in marriage.

Iranians also left comments on Hillary Clinton’s Instagram profile page, and on the page of Donald Trump himself. In the case of Clinton, the comments were mainly sarcastic or mean. “Now she should go home and wash dishes,” read one rather macho comment. Another speculated that the election might have been rigged. 

Among the atmosphere of jokes and emojis, there was a more serious edge, though for the most part, those posting tried to hide any feelings of anxiety they were experiencing. 

Elsewhere, Iranian officials gave their reactions to the outcome of the election. It “showed the domestic turmoil and instability” in the US, said Iranian President Rouhani. But, he added, the nuclear agreement “cannot be changed by the decisions of one government” and emphasized that “the results of the American election are not going to affect the policies of the Islamic Republic.”

Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, had a similar response. The election results showed “the frustration and distrust of the majority toward [the American] establishment and its workings,” he said, but stressed that Iran’s behavior would stay the same no matter what happened in terms of the shifts in governments of other countries.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was one of the first to comment. He appealed to Trump to be mindful of “global and Middle Eastern realities” and emphasized that the JCPOA must be implemented. His comments are perhaps the clearest indication that Tehran remains nervous about the election and its impact on the nuclear deal, whatever other officials say. 

Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi also expressed concerns, saying he hoped Trump’s victory would lead to changes in US policy in the Middle East. Specifically, he raised concerns over the battle against ISIS and international terrorism. The policies of the next American administration were more important than “campaign positions and propaganda slogans,” he said. 

“The image that Trump projected in his victory speech as president-elect was different from his image during the electoral campaign,” tweeted Hamid Abu Talebi, political vice president for President Rouhani’s office. “This is an important point.” Talebi's comments reveal Iranian officials’ hope that Trump will change his aggressive and negative tone, which has often been directed at Iran and the nuclear deal. “When Trump takes over the presidency, his advisors will tell him that he does not have too many choices regarding Iran and that he cannot ignore Iranian interests," he said. 

“Dynamism” or “Turmoil”?

“Understanding the political and social dynamism in America is difficult,” tweeted President Rouhani’s advisor Hessameddin Ashna, “but it is certainly preferable to simply cursing America and then being taken by surprise.” Ashna's use of the word “dynamism” sets him apart from other Iranian officials, many of whom described the election results as a kind of “turmoil.” But Ashna also emphasized the shock that Iranians, like many other people in the world, experienced when met with the Trump victory.

Unlike government officials, Ali Motahari, deputy speaker of Iran's parliament, expressed happiness. He praised Trump’s position toward Syria and said that his negative view of Saudi Arabia would benefit Iran — and that his positive view of Russia would be good for Iran too. Motahari said, despite Trump’s opposition to the JCPOA, in practice he would not be able to undermine it. Prior to the results, Motahari had gone on record saying that Hillary Clinton was more hostile toward Iran than Trump, and that the Democrats were in the habit of stabbing Iran and others in the back.

There are likely to be further predictions about the effects of Trump’s victory on US-Iranian relations in the coming days. Iranian officials — and hardliners in particular — will undoubtedly try to take advantage of the outcome to talk about the social and political defects of the US system of government. They will jump on the opportunity to talk about the United States from a position of strength. But, like the wider world, Iran does not have much of an idea about what the future might bring. As the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said, the impact of the election results on the Middle East and the world “cannot yet be accurately evaluated.”

And so the propaganda marathon between Iran and the United States has just begun.