Iranian Conservative Economist: After Victory, Trump Sounds More Rational

A decline in stock markets, increase in the price of gold, devaluation of Mexico’s currency, a drop in the value of the US dollar and market swings in Europe and Asia — these are just a few initial economic reactions to Donald Trump’s victory. But Mohammad Khosh-Chehreh, professor of economy at Tehran University and a former principalist member of the Iranian parliament, believes that these early signs are merely the results of election fever. “These economic events are short-term and emotional, not genuine,” he tells IranWire. “The price of gold has climbed up now, but wait a week or 10 days and look at the price again. I believe things will find their balance in a couple of weeks because emotions will cool down.”

During the 2005 Iranian presidential election, Dr. Khosh-Chehreh, who holds a Ph.D. from the University of Strathclyde in Scotland, appeared on TV on behalf of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He debated with Hossein Marashi, a representative for Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was also a presidential candidate at the time. Ahmadinejad went on to win the election. 

“Don’t Trust Pre-Election Slogans”

However, the policies Khosh-Chehreh presented for the Ahmadinejad camp were never implemented during Ahmandinejad’s eight-year presidency. Later, the economist said that Ahmadinejad never had an economic plan, so Khosh-Chehreh had presented his own ideas as those of the presidential candidate. So his recent comments about election rhetoric come from solid experience. “All over the world, and especially in the US, candidates come up with slogans professionally designed to address people’s demands, needs and worries,” he says. “So one cannot count too much on what they say, as you can see with Trump. His first post-election speech sounded more mature than his statements before the elections. He tried to be calmer than he had been before — whenever he said he would do this or that, how he would respond militarily, and whatnot. This shows that his post-election words are rational, and that what he said before were slogans and propaganda.” There is a wide gap, he says, between words and action.

Khosh-Chehreh says post-election commentary and analyses is emotional because the election has just happened. People are not able to speak rationally; it’s too early for that.

As a member of parliament, Khosh-Chehreh repeatedly analyzed, and also criticized, Ahmadinejad administration policies. But with the US election, he has decided not to make any predictions for the moment. “Right now I cannot comment on Mr. Trump’s plans and predict how effective they will be,” he says. “During the presidential debates, Trump talked about the American economy, but we have to wait and see his choices. The same holds true for the Middle East and Iran. There are now vastly different speculations about his choice of a secretary of state. As a person who tries to use scientific tools for analysis I cannot make any judgments right now until we have more accurate news and a clear cabinet.”

Players Beyond the President

But Khosh-Chehreh is certain of one thing, that in the US it is not only the president who decides. And any emotional responses are quickly restrained within the higher echelons of politics. “Of course, in America, under emotional conditions, there are players who want to control everything,” he says. “It appears that everything comes from from the election results. But there are other players outside the Republican and Democratic parties who — in the best case scenario — protect national interests. They try to prevent many of these [emotional] excesses.”

But he also believes that the United States is experiencing one of the most difficult moments in its political history. “Both economically and politically, and in terms of international competition, America is in a difficult and complex situation,” he says. “It still has its military power, but adventurism saps military power. Some wise men are aware of this.”

Khosh-Chehreh believes that these difficult political conditions can help achieve rational goals instead of decisions based on emotion and personal response. The United States, he says, is not set up to be governed on personal decisions alone. Despite the current atmosphere, conditions are more hospitable to rationality and moderation. Even with the uncertainty of what a Trump presidency will bring, this overriding calm will prevail.