Rouhani Has no Power to Free Karroubi

Mehdi Karroubi has been under house arrest since 2011. On August 16, he began a dry hunger strike in protest against his treatment and to demand a public trial — something he has asked for repeatedly. The day after, this morning at 1am Tehran time, his condition deteriorated, and he was transferred to Shahid Rajaie Hospital in Tehran.

Karroubi, a key leader in Iran’s Green Movement, is 80 years old and recently underwent two heart surgeries. He has suffered from a number of health problems over the last few years, and when he took the decision to go on hunger strike, it was obvious it would pose a serious threat to his health and even his life.

Following the news, a number of civil activists announced that they would also go on a dry hunger strike in solidarity with Karroubi. There were some reports in Iran that behind-the-scene consultations were taking place to end his house arrest, although IranWire cannot confirm this.

Many Iranians have gone on to social networking sites to appeal to members of parliament, religious leaders, cabinet members and President Rouhani for information about Karroubi, his house arrest and his demand for a public trial. Some analysts believe that a hunger strike is the only way to bring about the end to the house arrests of the Green Movement leaders. And some say that Karroubi is standing up to the regime with all that he has — that is, his life — because he does not want to die a natural death and have the causes he advocates simply disappear.

Sadegh Zibakalam, a professor of sociology at the University of Tehran, has opposed the house arrests. I talked to him about Karroubi’s hunger strike, its consequences and its possible repercussions.

What is significant about Mr. Karroubi’s hunger strike?

Since almost seven years ago when the house arrests started, it has cost the regime enormously, both internationally and domestically. In the simplest terms, the house arrests are immoral, inhumane, un-Islamic and unlawful.

The demand by the Green Movement leaders for a trial is utterly logical. Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard’s minimum demand, addressed to the Islamic Republic, is this: “You say that we are guilty of breaking the law. You say that we wanted to overthrow the regime in collusion with the US, Israel, Britain, George Soros, etc. Bring these charges up at a public trial and offer all the evidence and proof that you have for the people to see. Either we will be able to answer them or it will be proven that your charges are correct and we have no answers.”

But the government of the Islamic Republic refuses to do so. It simply answers: “We showed mercy towards you. We did you a favor because if we put you on trial, the least punishment you could expect was a death sentence.” All three have said: “We have no problem with that. We will abide by any verdict that the court might hand out, provided the trial is public.”

They have been under house arrest without a trial, and now Mr. Karroubi is on a hunger strike to demand his most basic right.

Do you think his hunger strike will break the house arrest?

It is very unlikely, because the leadership of the Islamic Republic has willed that the house arrests must continue. But, at the same time, this hunger strike provides a good opportunity for people like Mr. Rouhani, [Speaker of the Parliament] Ali Larijani and many other figures who are against the house arrests and have come to the conclusion that the house arrests have only cost the regime. Perhaps they can indirectly negotiate, change the mind of the leadership and we can move forward and gradually end the house arrests.

What do you mean by “gradually end” the house arrests?

Lifting the house arrests is not so simple. If the government comes and says that they will be lifted tomorrow, the first problem it will face will be that thousands from Tehran and around the country will set out to see these three people.

These three are no longer the just leaders of the protest movement that followed the 2009 election. They have become national heroes. To bypass this problem, I believe that the house arrests should be lifted gradually. First, immediate family members should be allowed to visit them, and their access to doctors and the hospital and medication should be facilitated. After a few months more, distant relatives could be allowed to visit; after that their friends, and so on. In this way, the house arrests could be lifted gradually.

The government would be saved from humiliation for having been defeated and for having yielded to the public opinion to end the house arrests. And it would also prevent a wave of emotions among people compared with the situation if the house arrests were lifted all at once.

Many believe Mr. Karroubi’s hunger strike to be very dangerous and serious because, considering his character, he will keep to his word until the very end.

He might not end the hunger strike per se, but I believe that if Mr. Khatami or even Mr. Mousavi advise it, he might at least allow to be fed by tube. Or maybe his family will intervene and prevent his physical condition from getting critical.

And there are those who think that, with this hunger strike, Mr. Karroubi is offering up his life for his beliefs, and that it is a price he is willing to pay. What is your opinion?

We cannot see inside Mr. Karroubi’s heart. But it is not unlikely that he wants to give up his life and become a martyr for freedom. God forbid, but if any one of these three dies even a natural death under house arrest, that person will definitely be seen as a shining example of a martyr for freedom and for the fight against tyranny and dictatorship.

Many of the people who voted for Mr. Rouhani expect him to do something about the situation. What can he do?

I believe the least that Mr. Rouhani can do is to show those 24 million — and the tens of thousands of students, writers and intellectuals — who voted for him and had hoped that he would end the house arrests that he wants to do something. But he can do nothing.

What is the use of saying: “I tried but I failed”?

The expectation is that he should at least try. If he does not succeed, well, that is another story. The problem is that, at least in the last four years, we have seen nothing to indicate that Mr. Rouhani has wanted to do anything — even though he could do nothing. Unfortunately, all that we see is that he does not care much about the house arrests. Mr. Rouhani could say: “I have started consultations with other high officials in the regime to prevent things from getting worse.” Or he could say that he is unhappy with what is going on. He can do this.