Is Iran Trying to Goad Trump?

On Saturday, September 23, Iran’s state-run television released a video it claimed showed that the Islamic Republic had successfully tested a new ballistic missile. Named Khorramshahr, it allegedly had a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles), and was capable of carrying multiple warheads. But soon after the announcement, Fox News reported that, according to American officials, no such test had taken place. The clip, it said, was footage of a failed test conducted nine months before. And on September 25, CNN also contradicted Iranian reports. According to a Trump administration official, it said, US intelligence radars and sensors had "picked up no indication" that an Iranian ballistic missile had been launched anytime close to when Iranian media had suggested it had.  

The Khorramshahr missile was actually unveiled during a military parade on September 22, a day before the Iranian reports. ”The Khorramshahr missile has a range of 2,000 kilometers and can carry multiple warheads," the Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Revolutionary Guards’ aerospace commander General Amir Ali Hajizadeh as saying.

On Saturday, September 23, Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami said the “extremely agile” Khorramshahr missile could evade an enemy’s anti-missile system and be guided from the moment that it left the ground until it hits its target. “As long as some speak in the language of threats, the strengthening of the country’s defense capabilities will continue. Iran will not seek permission from any country to produce various kinds of missiles,” Hatami said in a statement. However, he made no specific mention of a test having taken place.

On the same day, US President Donald Trump tweeted: "Iran just test fired a ballistic missile capable of reaching Israel. They are also working with North Korea. Not much of an agreement we have!"

Europeans Alarmed Too

But Trump was not the only Western leader to react to the news with alarm. “Extremely concerned by reports of Iran missile test, which is inconsistent with UN resolution 2231. Call on Iran to halt provocative acts,” British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson posted on Twitter.

And France expressed alarm too, and called on UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to carry out a full report on the launch. “France asks that Iran cease all destabilizing activity in the region,” French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Agnes Romatet-Espagne said in a statement. “[France] will consider with its partners, notably European, the means to obtain from Iran the cessation of its destabilizing ballistic activities.”

French media reported that following the missile test, Bpifrance, France’s state investment bank and the only French bank active in Iran, might review its plans to assist French companies that plan to invest in Iran. The bank had announced that it would finance investment projects by French companies in Iran from 2018, granting up to 500 million euros ($598 million) in annual credits.

Not surprisingly, Israel rushed to condemn the test. Iran’s provocative actions have threatened the free world, said Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman in a statement: “The ballistic missile that was fired by Iran is not only a provocation and a slap in the face for the United States and its allies — and an attempt to test them — but also further proof of the Iranian  ambitions to become a world power and threaten countries in the Middle East and all the countries of the free world.” 

It was “Trump’s Imagination”

On September 23, the website Tabnak, which is affiliated with Mohsen Rezai, the Secretary of the influential Expediency Council, reported on the “successful” launch of the missile. But on September 26, it tried to retract the report without explicitly doing so. “It appears that Trump imagined that Iran has conducted a missile test after watching the video,” the Tabnak article said. By using the phrase “imaginary Iranian missile test” the website seemed to confirm reports that no such test had taken place.

Iranian media have published various reports about the Khorramshahr missile, and some have republished the video released by state-run television. But media reports aside, Iranian military officials have made no mention of a missile test in any of their officials statements. Revolutionary Guards’ aerospace commander General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said on September 22 that the missile had been reduced in size to make it more effective, and that it would be operational “soon.” Neither Hajizadeh nor the Defense Minister Amir Hatami have said anything about a missile launch on or after the supposed date of the test.

But the Revolutionary Guards have not denied that the test took place. Why? It appears that its senior commanders are happy that this fake news has both goaded Trump and alarmed Israel. At the same time, it also appears that the fake missile test has alarmed European countries too — the very countries that are the Islamic Republic’s best chance and most powerful support against Trump’s desire to tear up the nuclear agreement.