Who will Inherit the Rafsanjani Legacy?

March 14, 2017 was supposed to be the last day of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s five-year term as president of the Expediency Council. Under normal circumstances, this day would have provided plenty of fodder for the media, which would have no doubt speculated about Rafsanjani's chances for reelection, or about his likely successor. With the death of Rafsanjani on Sunday, January 8, however, there is a new urgency to speculations. 

The Expediency Discernment Council of the System, as it is officially known, is responsible for settling disputes among the three branches of the government. But its real power comes from its role as the advisor to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

On March 14, 2012, Ayatollah Khamenei appointed 36 individuals — 14 clergymen and 22 non-clerics — as permanent members of the council. Since then, former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Saeed Jalili, chief nuclear negotiator under Ahmadinejad and one of the country’s most high-profile hardliners, have also been added to the group.

There is no fixed format or structure to the way the council’s meetings are run. When a dispute arises between parliament and the Guardian Council, which holds the power to interpret the constitution, all cleric members of the Expediency Council, the heads of the three branches of the government, the secretary-general of the High Council for National Security and the heads of relevant parliamentary committees all participate in the meeting. At other times, clerical members’ presence is not required. And not everyone who participates in the meetings is a permanent member of the council. Rafsanjani’s younger brother Mohammad Hashemi, Rafsanjani’s chief of staff and a former member of the council, regularly attended meetings even though Khamenei did not re-appoint him to the council in 2012.

Over the last five years, four of the 36 permanent members have died: Hasan Habibi, Abbas Vaez Tabasi, Habibollah Asgaroladi and now Rafsanjani, the fourth and the most important. 

The Expediency Council was established in February 1988 following a change to the constitution of the Islamic Republic. Since then, Ayatollah Khamenei has appointed its permanent members five times. The first time was in February 26, 1990 and since then the number of permanent members has constantly increased. In 1990, the council had nine permanent members, rising to the current number of 36. 

The Gradual Loss of Influence

So what is the political balance of the council and what impact does it have on the inner workings of Iranian politics overall? In 1990, out of the nine members, six were close to Ayatollah Khomeini and Hashemi Rafsanjani and three were from Khamenei’s circle. In February 1997, of the 27 members, 16 were Rafsanjani’s people and 11 were Khamenei’s followers. In 2002, membership increased to 30, with 16 people from Rafsanjani’s side and 14 from Khamenei’s. In 2007, of the 35 members, 18 were Rafsanjani’s allies and 17 were Khamenei’s. 

But the balance changed in 2012. Of the 36 members, at least 20 were Khamenei’s alies. And when Ahmadinejad and Jalili were added to the mix, this number increased to 22. The actual political tendencies of some of the permanent members is routinely talked about in the media; these views might not necessarily fall neatly into one category or another. But what is clear is that, since 1990, the Expediency Council has been made up of a larger number of principlists, and, in particular,  a greater number of hardliners and Ayatollah Khamenei confidants. In other words, over the years Khamenei has gradually made the council more hardliner in its make-up — thereby reducing Rafsanjani’s influence. At the same time, some subsidiaries of the council remained under the control of Rafsanjani, including the Center for Strategic Research, which became a shelter for moderates who had lost their political protection as a result of changes in the government or for other reasons.

In general, however, the Expediency Council itself has been increasingly weakened since 2005. Former President Ahmadinejad was keen to reduce Rafsanjani’s influence and went so far as to put restrictions on his meetings with foreign diplomats and guests. And in 2011, Ayatollah Khamenei further eroded the importance of the Expediency Council by creating a parallel rival institution, the Council for Resolving Differences Among the Three Branches.

After the 2013 presidential election, Rafsanjani’s role and the Expediency Council gained a little more importance due to his frequent foreign travels and his close relations with President Rouhani. Yet Ayatollah Khamenei showed no interest in restoring the prestige and weight of the Council. Of course, now that Rafsanjani is gone, the supreme leader might revise his position and adopt new policies in terms of the council’s management and its role. If that happens, the appointment of the council’s new president will become particularly significant. In addition, the matter of who makes up the permanent members of the council will also gain significance.

Who Could be President? 

Among the current members of the Council, the most likely successor to Rafsanjani is Mahmood Hashemi Shahroudi. Shahroudi is the head of the Council for Resolving Differences Among the Three Branches, served as Iran’s Judiciary Chief for 10 years from 1999 to 2009, and is a member of the Guardian Council. He has served on the Expediency Council for years. Shahroudi is not considered a political veteran or a revolutionary leader, but the heft of his experience might compensate for this. It is unlikely that the hardliner cleric Ahmad Jannati will be given the job since he is already chairman of both the Assembly of Experts and the Guardian Council, and with the presidential election not far off, his days are going to be very busy. Ayatollah Muhammad Ali Movahedi-Kermani could be a favorite choice among hardliners. He has gained importance through becoming secretary-general of the Combatant Clergy Association, but as a leader he does not have much to recommend him.

Former Speaker of Parliament Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri is the reformists’ and moderates’ favorite, but the political positions he has taken over the last decade, and in particular his close rapport with President Rouhani, makes his appointment unlikely. Nevertheless, if Khamenei does appoint him, it would be an indication that the supreme leader wants to maintain the political balance in Iran’s higher echelons of power.

Among the non-clerical members, former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati is the most prominent candidate. He has been a member of the Council for years, is the president of the Center for Strategic Research, and is an advisor to and close confidant of Ayatollah Khamenei. However, it is very unlikely that Khamenei would appoint someone who is not a clergyman to lead the Council.  

It is possible that Khameni could assign one of the heads of the three branches of government to be the council’s president. During Ahmadinejad’s presidency, his supporters argued that the president of the Islamic Republic should also lead the Expediency Council. Theoretically at least, the Iranian president is the second most powerful person in the country after the supreme leader, so it might appear unseemly that during Council meetings, the president is forced to remain in the shadow of another figure. It is possible that Hassan Rouhani feels this way. During Rafsanjani’s time as head, Rouhani did not attend many Expediency Council meetings —  and now it will be more difficult for him if somebody like Muhammad Ali Movahedi-Kermani or even Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri is in charge.

Over the next two months, a post-Rafsanjani political lineup will start to take shape, with the appointment of a new president and new members to the Expediency Council. Like the colossal Islamic Azad University, the Expediency Council was closely tied to Rafsanjani. Both are considered to be his legacy. Ahmadinejad and ideological hardliners attempted to take over Islamic Azad University, a vast private system of higher education institutions, but failed. Now, however, there is a new opportunity for these hardliners to dominate both the Expediency Council and the university. They may not be victorious in this goal, but it is clear that the battle ahead will be complex, and could help shape the political arena in the coming years.