Will Rafsanjani’s Death Give Khamenei More Power?

"How will the death of Hashemi Rafsanjani affect domestic Iranian politics?” IranWire put that question to its Persian-language audience on Monday, January 9. 

Over half of those taking part believed his death would result in the supreme leader gaining more power — 55.5 responded affirmatively to the statement “Rafsanjani’s death will give Khamenei more freedom to monopolize power.” 

The poll shows that although in recent years Rafsanjani’s influence in Iran’s high-level political disputes had diminished, the public still believed he wielded considerable power. This can likely be attributed to some of Rafsanjani’s recent political maneuvers — including during the 2013 presidential election, when, after he was deemed unqualified to run for president he put his support behind Hassan Rouhani, his closest pupil in politics. It was a win for Rouhani, but it also demonstrated that Rafsanjani still had influence over public opinion. 

Ayatollah Khamenei’s closest allies and followers repeatedly referred to Rafsanjani as an “obstacle” — but this also revealed their acceptance that the former president did have some influence with the supreme leader, or that he could at the very least inform him of alternate viewpoints. The overriding perception has been that hardliners have had a better chance of imposing their views through Khamenei, and not via Rafsanjani. 

However, 26 percent of people who took part in the survey stated that Rafsanjani’s death makes no difference to the political landscape because they believe that “Rafsanjani and Khamenei are two sides of the same coin.” Although it does not represent the majority view, this opinion definitely holds some weight among people who follow Iranian politics. Rafsanjani and Khamenei have always been unified in their aim to safeguard the regime of the Islamic Republic and its political and ideological system. Where they differed was in their belief of how this could be achieved. Khamenei wants to safeguard the regime through authoritarian means, whereas Rafsanjani’s approach was softer.

Of those taking part in the poll, 14.7 percent believe that Rafsanjani’s death “would not make much of a difference because in recent years Rafsanjani did not play a significant role in Iranian politics.” This view reflects an accurate understanding of the political realities of Iran in recent years.

The rejection of his candidacy for the presidential election, his failure to appoint his choice for chairman for the Assembly of Experts and the hardliners’ increasing control over important economic and religious institutions clearly demonstrates that Rafsanjani no longer had the power that he used to have. Even so, again, his media skills and his public character convinced many people that he could influence Khamenei. In many ways, he was still the most important counterpoint to the supreme leader.

Many believe that the vacuum left by Rafsanjani’s death will have significant consequences for the political power balance in Iran because President Rouhani lacks the necessary power, former President Khatami has been excluded from public and political life to a great degree, Hassan Khomeini has been sidelined and the leaders of the Green Movement are under house arrest.

Even so, 8.8 percent of those taking part in the survey believe that, with the supreme leader in place, no one — alive or dead — can shake the mighty foundations of the Islamic system.  This is the prevailing attitude among principlist groups, and especially among hardliners who praise Ayatollah Khamenei’s power and control in crisis management. They believe that Khamenei’s decisions — from controlling Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to managing the aftermath of the disputed 2009 presidential election and taking action against Mir Hossein Mousavi and Karroubi — clearly prove his success in safeguarding the integrity of the Islamic system. They also hope that Khamenei’s actions over the last two decades have laid a groundwork receptive to their aspirations in a post-Khamenei era.

The IranWire survey cannot possibly reflect all opinions in Iran about the consequences of Rafsanjani’s death. But it does show the variety of interpretations at play at the moment, not only among IranWire readers and the general public, but also when it comes to people directly involved in Iranian politics, both inside and outside the country.