Iran and US Clash over Missile Tests

On February 2, US President Donald Trump announced that Iran was “on notice,” echoing comments from his National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, after news emerged that Iran had tested a ballistic missile on January 29.

“Iran has been formally PUT ON NOTICE for firing a ballistic missile,” the tweet read. “Should have been thankful for the terrible deal the U.S. made with them!” Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan officially confirmed the test had taken place, but denied reports by western media that it had been a failure. Reuters had reported that the missile, launched from an area close to the north-central city of Semnan, exploded in the air after traveling a distance of 630 kilometers.

The test, especially if successful, was bound to anger the Trump administration. The US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting and called the test “unacceptable.” According to her, the tested missile could potentially carry a 500kg warhead and had a range of 300km. Other reports said that the missile flew further than the 600km cited by Reuters. And the German newspaper Die Welt, citing unspecified intelligence sources, reported on February 2 that Iran had also tested a cruise missile called "Sumar," which has the capacity to carry nuclear weapons. Iranian officials have not confirmed this test took place; nor have they corroborated any specific details about the missile tested at the end of January. 

“We will be Loud”

Those representing the president made the depth of their anger obvious, as might have been expected. “The Trump administration condemns such actions by Iran that undermine security, prosperity and stability throughout and beyond the Middle East and place American lives at risk," said Flynn. "We will act accordingly,” said Haley. “We will be loud.”

But even before Trump’s tweets, Ali Akbar Velayati, Iran’s former foreign minister and international affairs advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, dismissed Flynn as “inexperienced” and his statements as “swaggering.” Iran refused to pay him any attention, he said.  

"This is not the first time that an inexperienced person has threatened Iran," said Velayati. "Iran is the strongest power in the region and has a lot of political, economic and military power ... America should be careful about making empty threats to Iran." Given these statements, it is likely he will respond to Trump’s comments on Twitter in the same way, dismissing him as a greenhorn president seeking attention.

“Until he Learns...”

President Rouhani had a similar tone when he responded to Trump’s recent executive order denying visas to the nationals of seven Muslim countries including Iran. On February 1, Iran’s president called Trump a “novice,” and suggested he was out of his depth. “It's a totally new environment to him...It will take him a long time and will cost the United States a lot, until he learns what is happening in the world.”

In a joint news conference with visiting French counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault on February 1, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said, “As all signatories to the nuclear deal have announced, the missile issue is not a part of nuclear deal.” Iran’s missiles, he added, “are not designed for the capability of carrying a nuclear warhead... Our ballistic missile was designed to carry a normal warhead in the field of legitimate defense.”

But Iranian military officials reacted with a more provocative tone. “If they are afraid of our missile forces,” said Brigadier General Hossein Salami, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards, “every day more trees are going to grow in Iran’s missile forest.”

Although Salami’s tone sounded like boastful gesturing, the recent missile test does stand apart from previous tests in one key way. Iran, especially after the nuclear agreement, has tended to announce all missile tests before they carried them out. This time they did not. 

Last spring, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of Iran’s Aerospace Force, had objected to this kind of silence, believing it played into the hands of the Americans and others behind the nuclear deal.  “Now they are saying do not talk about missile tests,” he said.“They say: ‘if you have maneuvers or tests, keep silent.’ But if we accept this, they will only want more...in the end they will tell us, like they did [former Libyan leader Muammar] Gaddafi, load your missiles on ships and deliver them to us.’”

But in the current situation, the leaders of the Islamic Republic refrained from announcing the test to keep tensions between the US and Iran from getting worse just as Trump begun his presidency. But their tactic was foiled by the media, and and now the situation has worsened. 

A Trap?

For some, statements from American officials, whether it is Flynn’s announcements or Trump’s tweets, are a trap. The website Tabnak, which publishes the views of Mohsen Rezaee, the secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council [Persian link] is one outlet that has labeled the recent developments in such a way. According to Tabnak, the trap could have many components — the intensification of sanctions, the ban on visas, regional pressures, denying Iran a role in the Syrian crisis, siding with Saudi Arabia against Iran, applying pressure on the Iraqi government to reduce Iran’s influence, and so on.

If this is the case, then perhaps Trump’s administration is trying to force Iran to tear up the nuclear agreement, thus saving Americans an uphill battle to dismantle an international treaty that Trump has described as “terrible”. Iranian diplomats are perhaps trying to avoid falling into this trap, but for how long. And who can say what Trump will tweet tomorrow, and what this will mean for Iran’s fragile relationship with the world power?