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First Presidential Debate: A Dangerous Game Begins

April 29, 2017
Reza HaghighatNejad
4 min read
President Rouhani came across as nervous, and at one point his hands appeared to be shaking.
President Rouhani came across as nervous, and at one point his hands appeared to be shaking.
Eshagh Jahangiri showed composure and control. From very early on, he was on message, and he this continued throughout the three-hour debate session
Eshagh Jahangiri showed composure and control. From very early on, he was on message, and he this continued throughout the three-hour debate session
Ebrahim Raeesi, once thought to be the biggest threat to Rouhani, seemed almost invisible during the debates
Ebrahim Raeesi, once thought to be the biggest threat to Rouhani, seemed almost invisible during the debates
First Presidential Debate: A Dangerous Game Begins

The six candidates running for the presidency of Islamic Republic of Iran had their first debates on Friday, April 28. The overriding feeling across the media and among political analysts was that President Hassan Rouhani had not lived up to expectations. He talked slowly and in generalities, did not use his allotted time to get across key points, and failed to respond adequately when other candidates fired accusations at him. He came across as nervous, and at one point his hands appeared to be shaking.

By contrast, his first vice president, Eshagh Jahangiri, also a candidate, showed composure and control. From very early on, he was on message, and this continued throughout the three-hour debates. He came across as coherent and focused, and provided numbers and figures when making his points. As he talked, his credentials became obvious: Here was an experienced reformist executive who knew what he was talking about — and who knows how to talk. Throughout the debate, he switched between defense and attack tactics, depending on what was required. Rival candidate Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, was set on attacking Rouhani and his government, but from the start, Jahangiri stood up to him. He was ready with sharp, candid counter-attacks against Ghalibaf, who is currently Tehran's mayor, at least five times. Ghalibaf was so incensed by Jahangiri’s defense that he resorted to questioning whether Jahangiri should be in the running in the first place. 

Unlike Rouhani and Jahangiri, who worked together as a team, Ghalibaf was on his own in the debates, and was under attack constantly. He tried to project himself as somebody who had been wronged, and failed. This sort of tactic has historically won favor with sections of the Iranian electorate, but, due to Ghalibaf’s aggressive character — and with the recent tragedy of the Plasco fire still undoubtedly in their minds —  the mayor was not able to pull it off. Nevertheless, Ghalibaf emerged from the debates as a serious contender.

There were of course three other contenders on the stage — Ebrahim Raeesi, Mostafa Mir-Salim, a former minister of culture, and Mostafa Hashemitaba, president of the National Olympic Committee — but they were almost invisible. If a candidate is invisible during a debate, it makes it extremely difficult for him to run a successful or even notable campaign thereafter, or to motivate supporters. Although Raeesi’s supporters are not expected to now rush to Ghalibaf, it is safe to predict that Raeesi will not have gained many new supporters following this debate. Raeesi has had the worst start a candidate can have.

During the debates, Ghalibaf tried to present the presidential race not only as a binary choice between himself and Rouhani, but also a choice between the 4 percent or the 96 percent — in other words, the aristocrats vs. the underprivileged. Although Jahangiri prevented Ghalibaf from characterizing the campaign as a two-man race, Ghalibaf was more successful in achieving his second goal. His attacks on Rouhani over the weak economy and unemployment were something that people could sympathize with and readily understand. Of course, Jahangiri’s counter-attack of pointing out the mismanagement of Tehran’s affairs under Ghalibaf neutralized this offensive up to a point, but it became obvious that Rouhani and Jahangiri will have to pay more attention to these specific issues when campaigning.

And an even more important challenge for the Rouhani-Jahangiri campaign might present itself in the future. After the debates, there was no shortage of people who announced on social media that they were going to vote for Jahangiri. The number of Jahangiri supporters is likely to grow, and it is possible that some reformists will come out and say: “Now that we have a credible candidate of our own, we better stick with him.” Jahangiri is expected to quit the race and throw his support behind Rouhani, probably following the third series of debates. But what if the fortunes of Jahangiri continue to rise and he is seen as a serious candidate who can win the election? Wouldn’t then voters feel that they have been played? Wouldn’t they feel frustrated? This is the challenge that Rouhani’s and Jahangiri’s campaigns must deal with in the coming days.

Without a doubt, the first presidential debates have kicked off an intriguing and dangerous game.

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