Iran Takes First Steps to Rebuild Syria

From the beginning, Iran has paid an enormous cost for its intervention in Syria’s civil war. Its investment to ensure the success and survival of the Assad regime has come in the form of not just money, of course, but also human lives. In early March 2017, Mohammad Ali Shahidi, head of the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs, said that since the start of the civil war, around 1,100 member of the so-called “Defenders of the Shrine,” or the expeditionary Qods Force, have been killed in Syria. And, he said in his speech, “the martyrs’ path remains open” — meaning that the death toll is certain to rise.

In addition, some reports put the casualties suffered by Lebanese Hezbollah, Iran’s main deputy in the Middle East, at around 2,000, with 6,000 injured while defending the regime of Bashar al-Assad. According to data from the United Nations, Iran has spent an average of six billion dollars a year to prop up Assad, although other sources put the number at $15 to $20 billion annually.

So it’s hardly surprising that Iran is set on playing an active role in rebuilding the country now that ISIS and its self-styled "caliphate” are on the wane in Syria, and that it hopes to play a key role in determining the political, military, security and economic future of its strategic ally in the region. 

So what is the current and future role for the Islamic Republic in rebuilding Syria? What will the potential strategic consequences be for Tehran and Damascus?

From Communication Networks to Phosphate Mines

In January 2017, Syrian Prime Minister Imad Khamis visited Tehran, a move that could be seen as the beginning of Iran’s efforts to rebuild Syria. 

During the visit, the two countries signed five letters of understanding, agreeing to work together on communications and cellular networks, agriculture, mining and on building gas and oil terminals. According to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, the Syrian government agreed to provide Iran with 5,000 hectares of land for agriculture and a thousand on which to build oil and gas terminals.

And of course the Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) will be heavily involved. The Guards will be brought in to build communication networks and provide cellular communication, potentially giving it a considerable degree of control over phone and internet communication in Syria. Considering the Guards’ record in developing projects in Iran through its contracting arm, Khatam al-Anbia Construction Base, it’s safe to assume that this military-economic entity will also take part in large infrastructure projects in Syria, including building roads, airports, power facilities and commercial ports.

One of the agreements signed by Tehran and Damascus relates to the exploitation of a phosphate mine in the Syrian area of al-Sharqiyah near the ancient town of Palmira, one of the biggest reserves in the country.

According to Iranian state-run media, a number of Iranian companies will engage in projects to generate electricity in Syria worth $660 million. Opposition groups have labeled such projects as illegal, unacceptable and a plunder of Syrian national wealth. The Istanbul-based Syrian National Coalition, one of the main anti-Bashar al-Assad groups, believes that such agreements between Tehran and Damascus amount to gross violations of Syria’s sovereignty. It claims the agreements will reward an occupying force that has participated in the shedding of Syrian blood and helped crush the will of the Syrian people.

At the same time, considering Syria’s critical economic situation, it seems unlikely that such projects will become profitable anytime soon. To save the Syrian economy from total collapse up to now, the Islamic Republic has made several lines of credit worth billions of dollars available to the war-torn country, including one worth $3.5 billion in 2013 and its extension by a capital of around one billion dollars in 2015. In January 2017, First Vice President Eshagh Jahangiri announced that Tehran was ready to open a new credit line between Syria’s Commerce Bank and Iran’s Export Development Bank.

The Cost of Rebuilding as a Tool of Control

One of the biggest obstacles to rebuilding Syria in general, and for Iranian companies in particular, is securing necessary funds for a process of reconstruction that the International Monetary Fund has estimated will need more than $200 billion.

Considering that neither of Bashar al-Assad’s two major supporters, Russia and Iran, have the wherewithal to provide the funds, Syria has no choice but to rely on western countries, meaning the United States and countries in the European Union. In other words, countries that provide such enormous financial assistance to rebuild Syria’s devastated infrastructure will be in a position to use this support as a tool of control — a means to force Assad out, or at the very least, pressure the regime to change its behavior.

Western diplomats see the provision of funds for reconstruction as their winning card, and an important tactic for preventing Russia and Iran from gaining total control of Syria’s future. With this in mind, the European Union plans to hold a conference in early 2018 to discuss the question of rebuilding Syria.

“We should ensure that not a dollar, not a dollar, goes to reconstruct anything that is under the control of this brutal regime,” said General H. R. McMaster, President Trump’s National Security Advisor, in October.

Many Syrian opposition groups are earnestly lobbying the European Union to convince Brussels to make any financial contribution to rebuilding Syria conditional upon the release of political prisoners and to Bashar al-Assad stepping down from power. This year, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York, Friends of Syria, a 14-member alliance of mainly Western and Gulf Arab countries opposed to the Assad regime, announced that they will not support the reconstruction of the country until there is a political transition away from Assad, citing UN Security Council Resolution 2254.

Russia’s Role and Influence

Despite coordinated attempts by these countries to use Syrian reconstruction as a lever to pressure its government, it is impossible to ignore the military and political role Russia has played in keeping Assad in power. Beside Moscow’s diplomatic moves to establish a certain kind of peace that preserves the existing political structure in Syria, it has shown interest in contributing to reconstruction projects. In April 2016, only months after Russia had started its military intervention in Syria in September 2015, Moscow and Damascus signed a contract for infrastructure projects worth one billion dollars.

According to RT (formerly Russia Today), in November 2016, a few months after the agreement was signed, Assad’s government pledged to give Russia priority when assigning reconstruction contracts. The report said the two countries even held talks to create a joint bank to facilitate financial transactions between them. RT has repeatedly been characterized as a propaganda outlet for the Russian government. 

The seventh round of Syrian peace talks took place in late October 2017 in Kazakhstan's capital, Astana. Russia, Iran, and Turkey sponsored the sessions, in which some Syrian opposition groups participated, and it gave Moscow greater bargaining power when it came to Syria. But the talks also appear to be designed to make it possible for Moscow to put more pressure on its western rivals — who essentially adhere to what was determined during the Geneva peace talks — by bringing the Kurds to the negotiating table.

To better achieve this goal, Russia has sponsored a "Congress of Syrian National Dialogue,” which will be held on November 18 in the Black Sea coastal city of Sochi or at the Syrian airbase of Khmeimim near the city of Lattakia. Two topics on the conference’s agenda include the future of Syria’s constitution and political reforms. But the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), the main Western-backed political opposition group, has announced its opposition to the conference, accusing organizers of attempting to circumvent the outcome of the UN-backed Geneva peace talks, which aims for political transition and a future without Assad in power.

Even if the international community agrees to finance the huge cost of reconstruction in Syria and sets the process in motion, it is very likely that the Syrian government will give its current faithful allies greater priority. This means that Russia and Iran will have a somewhat free hand in the way Syria is reconstructed, and who benefits from this reconstruction.