Khamenei Sets Impossible Conditions to Improve Relations with US

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei controls every aspect of Iran’s foreign policy and now he has set conditions for returning to commitments made under the nuclear treaty, officially known as the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), that have no chance of being realized.

If the US wants Iran to return to its commitments under the JCPOA, “the irrevocable condition is that the United States must lift all sanctions, and not just on paper but in action,” Khamenei declared at his annual meeting with commanders and staff of the Iranian air force on February 7. “After they have done this, we will check if the sanctions have truly been lifted. Once this is done, we will resume our JCPOA commitments.”

By declaring this condition to be “irrevocable,” Khamenei has pulled the rug from under Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who recently suggested that, through the mediation of the European Union, the lifting of US sanctions and Iran’s complete return to the JCPOA could take place at the same time. But Zarif’s proposal was not accepted by the US, which says Iran must first abide by all the protocols of the JCPOA before sanctions are lifted, a condition that the Islamic Republic has rejected.

According to unofficial reports leaked to the media before Khamenei’s speech, the Biden administration wants to encourage Iran to return to all provisions of the JCPOA by relaxing the enforcement of sanctions and allowing Iran to withdraw funds from some of its blocked bank accounts in other countries. Khamenei’s new condition has made the situation much more complicated. It does not seem realistic to expect that the US will agree to lift all sanctions imposed by the Trump administration and then wait for Iran to announce its judgement, which may well be a rejection of US actions as insufficient.

Even if the US were willing to lift all sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, this is not something that can be done easily or in short order. Many of the Iranian institutions and entities that were subject to nuclear sanctions were hit by other categories of sanctions such as anti-terrorism sanctions after the US left the JCPOA. Lifting all these sanctions is time-consuming and could violate other emergency laws the US has implemented in dealing with the Iran in the past 42 years.

Now, with Iran’s announcement that it will expel inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) unless sanctions are lifted by February 21, a deadline that is fast approaching, while continuing to enrich uranium to 20 percent purity, we should expect a tense atmosphere in a few weeks’ time. But this is not the end of the story.

Retreat While Saving Face

The very real likelihood of new tensions over Iran’s nuclear activities does not mean that Khamenei will not retreat from the conditions set in his speech today. In the course of nuclear negotiations from 2013 to 2025 he also repeatedly set conditions for the other side that proved impossible to meet. Iranian negotiators then had to retreat - with his permission, of course - in a way that would not make Khamenei lose face.

For example, during the negotiations Khamenei said all US sanctions had to be repealed and after the text of the nuclear treaty was finalized he announced that if the US were to impose new sanctions Iran would no longer abide by its obligations under the JCPOA. However, contrary to what Khamenei demanded, US sanctions were not “canceled” in the sense of being “repealed” because such a measure required approval from the US Congress and, at the time, Democrats had no majority in the Senate or the House of Representatives and President Obama’s hands would have been tied even if he were willing to do this.

Eventually the sanctions were “lifted” by an executive order issued by President Obama, and the US promised that it would “repeal” them a year after the JCPOA was implemented and after Iran committed to certain actions such as joining the IAEA inspection regime based on its Additional Protocol.

Another condition set by the Supreme Leader met the same fate. A few months after the JCPOA went into effect, the US Congress renewed non-nuclear sanctions against Iran which were about to expire and Barack Obama signed the legislation, but Khamenei retreated from his promise to take Iran out of the nuclear treaty if the sanctions were not repealed.

Khamenei’s new condition regarding US sanctions is illogical and impractical, but this does not mean that it cannot be revised. The EU and the United Nations did what they could to keep the JCPOA alive after Donald Trump’s withdrawal from it in 2018, but insistence on this condition could push the treaty to the brink of total collapse.

Supporters of Khamenei say he has not involved Iran in a war throughout his years of leadership. This is not a false claim if we consider “war” as only a classical military confrontation rather than behind-the-scenes interventions in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, but by wasting Iran’s resources such as its human capital and casting dark clouds of despair over the country during his 31-year rule, he has inflicted economic and social damage on Iran that have not cost it any less than a full-scale war.

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