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US Envoy for Iran: Tehran May Never Come Back to the JCPOA

October 13, 2021
IranWire
4 min read
US Envoy for Iran: Tehran May Never Come Back to the JCPOA

The US and allies might need to prepare for a world in which the Islamic Republic ploughs on with its nuclear program without constraints, the Biden administration’s special envoy for Iran has said.

In an interview on Wednesday with Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Robert Malley stressed that both the US and the P5+1 countries were still committed to a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

But he said that while the mood had been positive whenthe sixth round of indirect talks in Vienna wrapped up in early summer 2021, the situation had changed since Ebrahim Raisi became president.

Iran has since openly ratcheted up its nuclear activities in defiance of sanctions. Mohammad Eslami, head of the regime’s Atomic Energy Organization, announced on Saturday that Iran had now amassed more than 120 kilograms of 20 per cent enriched uranium.

Tehran also said in early September it would allow IAEA monitors to resume visits to Iranian nuclear sites. But then as soon as the IAEA’s annual board meeting was over, the regime declared the IAEA would not be getting access to Karaj and other facilities after all, unless the West explicitly condemned attacks on Iranian nuclear sites over the past few years.

“We now have a very different team [in Iran], which says it wants to do things differently,” Robert Malley said. “We thought we were making real progress towards resumption of compliance with the deal. But every day that goes by, we’re getting a piece of Iran’s answer. Every day they’re not coming back to the table; every day they’re making statements about how little happened in Vienna.

“Of course, you also have to prepare for a world – which we’re doing now, in consultation with partners in the region – where Iran doesn’t have constraints on its nuclear program.”

Malley added that there would also come a time in the “not-too-far-future” where Iran’s nuclear capabilities reached such a point that the terms of the original JCPOA were nullified: known as “breakout” point, when the regime has the ability to produce a weapon.

“Getting back to the deal is by far our preference,” he said. “We have to be prepared to live with a world in which Iran is not interested. But if Iran is interested, we’re prepared to [go back to the JCPOA] in good faith.”

Shifting Parameters

Malley also served as the Obama administration’s lead negotiator at the time the original deal was signed in 2015. He said that in his view Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal of the US from the JCPOA had directly caused the Islamic Republic’s current “unconstrained, aggressive regional posture”.

At the same time, though, he said the original deal could be improved on – even expanded – through renewed talks with Iran. Without naming specifics, he said: “There are things that aren’t covered in the JCPOA that we wish we could have an understanding with Iran about.

”The Iranians in 2016 made it clear that they didn’t feel it went far enough. If Iran does come back to the table and puts out things that are clearly beyond the JCPOA, we’ll talk about it.”

Malley was also pressed on US efforts to free dual national citizens jailed in Iran, including Siamak and Baquer Namazi, Emad Sharghi and Morad Tahbaz, who are widely considered to be being held hostage by the regime for political and/or material gain.

This part of the discussions, Malley said, was “one of the most painful”. But he was adamant that there was to be “no linkage” between their release and any new deal: “We’re doing everything we can to make sure they get home. We should reach an understanding on the immediate release of those detainees who have done nothing wrong other than be American citizens in Iran.”

Related coverage:

What Will 60 Percent Nuclear Enrichment Do to Iran’s Future?

Nuclear Acceleration and Rocket Attacks: The Uncertain Future of the JCPOA

Uncertain Future for Nuclear Deal as Rouhani’s Presidency Comes to an End

Iran Sets Out Conditions for the Revival of the Nuclear Deal (At Least on Paper)

How will the Nuclear Deal Affect Iran’s Presidential Election?

America’s Return to Nuclear Deal Complicated by Iran’s Ultimatum and Attack in Iraq

What Do We Know About the Nuclear Watchdog’s Cameras in Iran?

US-Iran Relations: A Long Way From There, Experts Agree

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