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Features

Raisi vs Ahmadinejad: Two Hardliners a World Apart

June 30, 2021
Ehsan Mehrabi
8 min read
Raisi vs Ahmadinejad: Two Hardliners a World Apart

Ebrahim Raisi’s principalist government will take office in Iran on August 3. Today's economic situation and climate is markedly different to the last time a hardcore conservative was in office. Chief among these differences is the harsh reality that US sanctions have crippled the economy in the years since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was in charge. And yet the domestic political situation bears great similarity to 2005, when Ahmadinejad began what would become a controversial eight-year term.

Like Raisi, Ahmadinejad began his presidency with all of Iran’s branches of government and institutions on his side: the 7th parliament dominated by conservatives, which had been the culmination of widespread candidate disqualification; the judiciary, always a bulwark of conservativism; and the military, economic, and media institutions affiliated with the Supreme Leader all supported Ahmadinejad.

Back in 2005, it appeared to be clear sailing for the regime. But tensions grew between the president and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and eventually Ahmadinejad rebelled against the Leader.

So could this happen with Ebrahim Raisi, a man so clearly aligned with the vision and ideology of Khamenei? In fact, speculations, predictions, and warnings have already begun and in some quarters, a healthy suspicion of the president and his allies has already taken root.

When predicting the future of Ebrahim Raisi and the trajectory his administration might take, observers and political pundits have turned to the question of personality, and the fact that it sets him well apart from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. For some Raisi is the epitome of obedience: because he is a cleric, they say, he has a sharp understanding not only of Ayatollah Khamenei’s sense of morality, but also of the people with whom he surrounds himself. This apparent propensity for obedience, coupled with his 41-year service to the Islamic Republic and its unique system and ideology, as well as his ability to keep a low profile, have prompted some to have cautious hopefulness about how he will perform. They say he will avoid conflict. For them, the possibility of a confrontation with the Supreme Leader, following in the footsteps of Ahmadinejad, will be unlikely or near to impossible.

Yet others point to the ongoing clash between the elected and appointed structures of the Islamic Republic, and argue that this dynamic will ultimately push any president toward conflict, faced with a flood of voter expectations on the one hand and sabotage of any efforts to fulfil them on the other.

The Danger of Praise

Former parliament chairman Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, who clashed with Ahmadinejad as the 7th parliament (2004-2008) came to a close, has expressed hope for a "consolidation of efforts" between the current hardline-dominated parliament and Raisi's incoming government. "We should thank God that a government has come to power that understands and accepts what the Leader says and then strives to implement it,” he said, contrasting it with the political environments of the past. "I did not have such a feeling during the four eight-year governments [during which Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Hassan Rouhani were both president, from 1989-1997 and 2014-2021 respectively], but now a new day has emerged and parliament and the government must work together."

Hours after Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel’s comments, Assadolah Badamchian, the secretary general of the coalition Motalefeh Islamic Party, described the presidential election as a "smooth transfer of power in Iran" and announced: "The West has realized that one side of the rivalry in Iran has lost its social base."

Praises from principalist figures, however, have provoked reactions from some domestic critics. The Jomhuri Eslami newspaper, for example, rejected positive comments about Ebrahim Raisi by Ahmad Alam al-Hoda, the Friday Imam of Mashhad, who said: "The president-elect has grown up at the table of Imam Zaman and has come to his holy site with the motive of serving,” referring to the twelfth and last Shia imam, who Shias believe will return to the Earth to bring justice and peace.

“Please do not tie his government to Imam Zaman,” the article published in Jomhuri Eslami warned. It went on to criticize  the "sanctification of officials" during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's eight-year term: "It seems that with the establishment of the new government, we will again witness the sanctification of officials and the spread of such words.”

Examples of such “sanctifications” under Ahmadinejad included references to haloes, various subsidies being equated with “the money of Imam Zaman," a description of Ahmadinejad's letter to former US President George Bush as “a Divine inspiration,” and comparison of Ahmadinejad's general obedience with obedience to Imam Zaman.

Akbar Alami, a former MP, published examples of the Supreme Leader's support for Ahmadinejad in the form of a footnote on his Telegram channel: ”At least this time, Mr. Raisi will not be praised too much, because if, in the future, he changes his direction — God forbid — like the previous presidents did, and is then adorned with labels such as seditionist, blind, deviant, and so on, there will be a possibility of justification and compensation."

Take Note of the Ahmadinejad Years

Rasoul Jafarian, a cleric and director of the library at parliament during the presidency of Ali Larijani (1992-1994), has also appealed to Raisi's administration to consider the Ahmadinejad era, going on to Twitter to issue his warnings: "Now you are here, and it is not a bad idea to review the experience of a government similar to yours, namely the Ahmadinejad government, in terms of the procedures it adopted, its use of religious concepts, its distribution of money to the people, its attention to dubious science, its tendency to spread superstition, and the design and use of meaningless slogans ... so that you do not fall into the same well.” His references highlight in particular various controversies that took place in the last four years of Ahmadinejad's presidency.

Ebrahim Raisi’s cabinet is still to be determined, so there has been widespread speculation about who he will entrust to carry out his policies. Many names have been flagged from the Ahmadinejad era: Ali Nikzad, Ahmadinejad’s former minister of housing, as possible chief of staff; former health minister Kamran Bagheri Lankarani; former Head of the Management and Planning Organization Farhad Rahbar; and even Saeed Jalili, who was Ahmadinejad's approved secretary in the Supreme National Security Council, are among those predicted to join the cabinet.

"Ahmadinejad had an irrational foreign policy and the people paid a heavy price," Abbas Abdi, a reformist journalist, told Al-Mayadin news network. "I don't think Raisi will do that at all, and that is indicated by what he said at the press conference about the nuclear deal. In addition, the main character and behavior of Ahmadinejad was completely different. Therefore, I believe that Raisi's government is fundamentally different from the Ahmadinejad government."

Abdi even called on the reformists to tentatively regard Raisi in a positive light. "I'm not sure. The situation is like a watermelon: it has to be opened to see what is inside," Abdi said.

Ali Motahari, deputy speaker of the previous parliament, also described Ebrahim Raisi as a wise man. He has described him as a "supra-factional" leader and says he will behave with respect toward most, despite the fact that he has surrounded himself with hardliners.

The Defining Structure

However, the structure of power in the Islamic Republic and how it works, together with its legal system, will also be determining factors in how this presidency, like all others, will take shape.

"In the Iranian system, the Leader and the president have always been in conflict," said Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, Iran's first president. "This is because of the differences between the two regarding their functions and duties. Mr. Khamenei has established a one-way relationship with the people and the executive branch, stating that everyone should follow his wishes. The function of the president is exactly the opposite because he must meet the expectations and needs of the people and the society, and from this point of view, he cannot ignore them. This fight has been going on between the Leader and the president since the beginning of the revolution."

Sociologist Ahmad Fa’al also linked change in presidents' policies to Iran's political structure, not their personalities. Speaking on the Tahkim Mellat news channel, he said, "The reason for the change in policies of the late president Rafsanjani Hashemi in his first and second term and the reason for the change of Ahmadinejad's approach in his two terms of presidency was not due to their personality traits nor their disobedience when it came to the values of the principlists. It was due to the technical and executive requirements in the country."

In the meantime, apart from the usual clashes between the president and the institutions under the supervision of the Supreme Leader, there is the question of life beyond Khamenei. Ebrahim Raisi's name has been touted as a possible successor, and this could well intensify these clashes. Because if Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s son, intends to take his father’s place, he could try to humiliate Raisi throughout his presidency. However, the form of these conflicts may be different from those of the Ahmadinejad era. Given the current secrecy around the leadership and Iran’s political elite at the moment, it is difficult to know just how severe those clashes will be, or what form they will take.

Related Coverage: 

How Might the Economy Fare Under a "Unified" Iranian State?

Ebrahim Raisi's Miraculous Progress from Junior Cleric to Ayatollah

Ebrahim Raisi: The Case for the Prosecution

Decoding Iranian Politics: The Supreme Leader vs. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

The Return of Ahmadinejad: What is Iran's Populist Demagogue Trying to Prove?

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