From June 12 to 16 a random sample of 1,197 residents of Iran aged 18 and over were contacted by phone and asked about their views on the current premier, the general trajectory of the country and their level of political engagement, as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
A total of 64 percent said they “disapproved” of Raisi’s performance as president so far. Nine percent were unsure or declined to answer, and just 28 percent “approved”.
In addition, only 20 percent of respondents said they thought Raisi was capable of solving the issues Iran faces today, compared to 63 percent who said he was incapable. Forty-nine percent of those in the latter camp blamed “external political obstacles” for the difficulties, while 21 percent cited Raisi's “personal shortcomings”.
A majority of respondents expressed pessimism about the country's immediate future. Only 19 percent said they believed the issues facing the country today would be better in the next year; 58 percent expected the situation to get worse. Notably this was also truer of young Iranians than of the older generation.
Most of those who took part wanted to see Iran reach a renewed nuclear deal with Western powers: a total of 55 percent, compared to only 17 percent who were explicitly against an agreement. A majority also thought a nuclear deal would help alleviate Iran’s economic problems.
Last June, Ebrahim Raisi won the presidential election in Iran with 62 percent of the vote, from 18 million people. But only 48.8 percent of the electorate chose to take part, in the lowest recorded turnout since 1979.
One prompt from the survey asked respondents about the low turnout last year. Around 46 percent said that “distrust in the regime” was the likely cause. Another 16 percent blamed the economy, and six percent the performance of the previous Rouhani administration.
Those who reported having voted for Raisi last June were asked a follow-up question: whether they would do the same again now. Just 51 percent said they would, while 30 percent said they would now prefer not to take part.
Separately, participants were asked their opinion on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite the Raisi administration and the state-controlled media's staunch backing of Moscow, Iranians were three times more likely to support Ukraine. Thirty-five percent said they had sympathy for Ukraine, compared to 12 percent for Russia, while around half said neither, did not know or did not want to answer.
The survey included respondents from every province in Iran, sampled based on their population. The response rate was 34.4 percent.
Arash Ghafouri, President of Stasis Consulting, said: “The results of this survey show that most Iranian citizens have distrust in government, are pessimistic about their future, and are dissatisfied with the direction of the government and the performance of the president.
“The single factor Iranians thought could positively impact the future of the country is a successful nuclear agreement between Iran and the West, which might improve their economic situation.”
To view the full results in a series of interactive visualizations, or to download the raw data, click here.