Who are Raisi’s Potential Successors?

Ebrahim Raisi, a hard-line politician considered a potential successor to Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, was confirmed dead in a crash. 

Iranian state media reported that he and the other passengers had “attained martyrdom.”

With Raisi's death, the list of candidates to replace him is extensive, but in the limited time of about 50 days, tested options have a better chance. 

Ebrahim Raisi was considered a potential future leader so the selection of the next president should be coordinated with the issue of succession.

The most prepared option is Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, while figures like Ali Larijani may also hope that the leader of the Islamic Republic will give them a platform to effect change. 

Some figures like Parviz Fattah and Hossein Dehghan might be favored by certain government supporters, but they face challenges in gaining acceptance within 50 days.

According to Article 131 of the Constitution, in the event of the President's death, his first deputy, with the approval of the Leader of the Islamic Republic, assumes the powers and responsibilities of the presidency. 

Additionally, a council consisting of the Speaker of the Parliament, the Head of the Judiciary, and the First Vice President must make arrangements for a new president to be elected within 50 days.

Ghalibaf: Ready Option

Among the proposed options, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, parliament speaker, is the most prepared candidate. 

He does not need to obtain permission or introduce himself in a short time. 

Compared to Raisi, Ghalibaf is considered a more executive figure, and from the government's perspective, he can address some of the existing problems. 

Ghalibaf can also manoeuvre through the predicament in the parliament and the attempts to remove him from the presidency. 

In this context, the parliament will likely become a tool for his control.

While widespread corruption is a significant issue, it has not posed problems for him within the structure of the government.

Ali Larijani: Permission Required

If the leader of the Islamic Republic has the will to make a change in the public atmosphere, he can, unlike in the past, issue an order to confirm the qualification of Ali Larijani, former speaker of the parliament. 

Larijani's problem, however, is still the concern of Rouhani's team and his brother Sadegh Larijani gaining power in the public space and planning for future leadership. 

This situation complicates the equation and the issuance of an order to confirm his qualification is subject to many considerations.

Zarif: Option to Solve the Foreign Crisis

Mohammad Javad Zarif could be the most desirable option for the government to address the foreign policy crisis and some internal crises. 

Compared to Larijani, Zarif's advantage is that he does not have a large organization and is less likely to interfere with the issue of leadership succession.

However, his candidacy in the elections would require a significant change in the government's atmosphere and outlook.

Parviz Fattah: Less of an Option

Parviz Fattah has been mentioned as a candidate for the elections in various periods, but currently, he is not prominently discussed in public opinion. 

Fattah's name has previously been proposed for the presidential election. 

In the 2017 elections, his candidacy was seriously considered, but he stated that he respected the decision given to him by the Leader of the Islamic Republic and would not run for the elections. 

These statements were interpreted as a reference to Ebrahim Raisi, who, like Fattah, had recently received a decree from the Leader of the Islamic Republic but chose to run for the presidential election. 

Fattah later clarified that he did not intend to ridicule Raisi. 

One of Fattah's advantages over some other candidates is his appeal to the Turkish-speaking Iranians' vote, which has played a significant role in past elections and sometimes disrupted political equations.

Hossein Dehghan: IRGC Option

Hossein Dehghan has demonstrated that he retains the trust of the government, evident in his appointment as the head of the Mustazafan Foundation. 

Additionally, he may attract a more diverse range of supporters than Raisi. 

Like Ghalibaf, Dehghan maintains support among certain factions within the military. 

Dehghan has stated that he was one of President Rouhani's options for the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council but declined the position. 

Nonetheless, he faces the challenge that he may not be able to establish himself as the primary option within the limited timeframe of 50 days.

Ezzatullah Zargami: Changing the Media Environment

Ezzatullah Zarghami is indeed among the options that could potentially bring about a fresh atmosphere in terms of media, despite his lack of extensive executive records and some ambiguity regarding his management style. 

However, he faces the challenge of never having been considered the main option for such a prominent role.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Unpredictable Option

In the meantime, figures like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may also harbor hopes that the government will choose them to navigate through the crisis. 

However, compared to Larijani, Ahmadinejad faces a more acute challenge in terms of obtaining approval. 

His only potential advantage for the government is that, like Larijani, he does not have a dedicated team that could potentially seize control of government institutions. 

Nonetheless, his unpredictable actions remain a significant concern.

Young Options: Looking for Publicity

Among the cabinet and fundamentalists, many ambitious young politicians such as Alireza Zakani and Mehrdad Bazrpash have shown interest in the presidency. 

However, given the urgency of the government's situation within the 50 days, it cannot afford to take risks and must consider its established options. 

These younger politicians may only play a role in heating the atmosphere of the elections alongside figures like Mohsen Rezaei and Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi. 

The potential removal of the incumbent president was unforeseeable, leading to the possibility of clerics like Mustafa Pourmohammadi also entering the presidential race.