The Fall of Assad: Did Türkiye Betray Iran?

Many in Iran, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, blame Türkiye for the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Syria, a key part of the Islamic Republic’s “Axis of Resistance,” has been overtaken by armed opposition groups, many of which are backed by Türkiye and Qatar. Some of these groups are considered terrorist organizations by Western countries.

With the start of new developments in Syria on November 27, many in Iran believed Türkiye was to blame and accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of “betrayal” and pursuing his “neo-Ottoman” dream.

When Iran’s foreign minister met with Türkiye’s foreign minister, protests erupted outside the Turkish embassy in Tehran against Erdoğan and his policies. Since then, many supporters of the Islamic Republic no longer view Türkiye as a “friend and brother.”

Türkiye’s support for the forces that captured Damascus has led many supporters and officials of the Islamic Republic to view Türkiye as a “hypocrite and infiltrator in the Islamic world.”

Statements from Ankara officials about the Islamic Republic and its position in Syria have further intensified negative views of Türkiye in Iran.

Some believe that Türkiye will now play the role that Iran and Russia once held as Syria’s main supporters, especially since, on December 15, Türkiye reopened its embassy in Syria after 12 years, while Iran’s embassy in Damascus has been closed, and parts of it have been looted.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s diplomatic efforts have failed.

A video he posted from a restaurant in Damascus, intended to show the city’s safety for Iranian officials, has now been overshadowed by images of İbrahim Kalın, head of Turkey’s intelligence agency.

Analyses in media close to the Islamic Republic are painting a bleak picture for Türkiye and predict a future marked by crisis.

The website Diplomacy Iranian has criticized Türkiye’s actions in the South Caucasus and Syria, called them provocative, and warned that “ongoing conflicts” in Syria will lead Türkiye into a long-term crisis.

The analysis also raises concerns about the threat of “takfiri terrorists,” potential operations against Türkiye, and the heavy economic costs and risks to the country’s political unity.

The article warned of “a war whose costs will have to be paid by Turkish citizens and, of course, will threaten the future political unity of the country.”

On December 16, Farhikhtegan newspaper published an article titled “The Sultan and the Shepherd,” about Türkiye’s role in Syria.

It said, “Türkiye now finds itself in a sensitive position, where it faces heavy costs with no significant opportunities.”

The analysis continues with a warning to Türkiye, saying, “If Türkiye is seen as a hegemonic power, it could lead to the formation of anti-Türkiye alliances and foreign interventions. Some believe that during the regional rivalry between the UAE and Türkiye, Abu Dhabi tried to overthrow Erdoğan in the 2016 coup.”

Supporters of the Islamic Republic have also threatened Türkiye by backing the Kurdish cause.

One Telegram channel close to the government said, “Since Türkiye has backed the Syrian opposition, it’s time for us to support the Kurdish people, who have long been oppressed by Türkiye.”

Recent discussions in Iran focus on Türkiye’s “neo-Ottomanism” under Erdoğan.

Mansour Haghighatpour, a former member of the National Security Commission of the Islamic Republic’s parliament, has criticized Türkiye’s policies.

He wrote in Tehran’s Arman-e-Melli newspaper, “The neo-Ottoman movements in the region are indefensible. Türkiye supports terrorist groups in Syria, despite previously emphasizing Syria’s territorial integrity during the Astana talks.”

He criticized Türkiye’s “anti-Iran actions” in the Middle East and the Caucasus and added, “These actions are intolerable, and Türkiye will soon pay the price.” Haghighatpour also called Türkiye’s supply of steel to Israel “unforgivable.”

The Farda News website warned of Syria’s fragmentation, claiming Israel is expanding in the Golan while Erdoğan seeks control over Syrian cities like Damascus.

“Syria is gradually moving toward fragmentation by the apartheid regimes of Israel and Türkiye. While Israel expands its occupation in the Golan, Erdoğan says he wants control over several Syrian cities and provinces, including Damascus.”

The article added, “The dream of reconstructing the Ottoman Empire has made Türkiye’s foreign policy hostile, greedy, and delusional.”

Rasoul Jafariyan, head of Tehran University’s Central Library, wrote on social media, “Türkiye avenged the Arab revolution of 1916-1918, which reclaimed the Levant and Haramain [Islam’s two holiest places in Saudi Arabia] from the Ottomans.

“Now, Türkiye watches Syria’s destruction under Israeli bombings, forming an alliance with Israel for the devastation of the Arab world. Above all, Israel is happy with Türkiye’s actions.”

Some Iranian analysts even refer to Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the commander of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, as “Erdoğan’s commander” and give him the title “the leading Ottoman general in the Levant.”

Mahdi Tadini, a translator and analyst, said that Türkiye’s next target is Syria’s Kurdish region.

He suggested Ankara aims to make the new Syrian government more reliant on it. According to Tadini, Israel’s bombing of Syrian infrastructure benefits Türkiye by weakening Syria and increasing its dependence on Ankara.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said in a December 11 speech that the events in Syria were “orchestrated in the command rooms of the U.S. and Israel.”

He added, “A neighboring government of Syria also has a clear role and continues to do so. But the primary planner and command center is the U.S. and the Zionist regime.”

Not naming the neighboring country was widely interpreted as a diplomatic move. However, supporters of the Islamic Republic, while blaming Türkiye, argued that not naming it reflected Türkiye’s lack of significance to Iran.

In reality, however, Türkiye’s actions are far from insignificant to Iran, and the Islamic Republic is unhappy with Türkiye’s growing influence in Syria.

Hassan Rashvand, a political analyst, wrote in the hardline Kayhan newspaper that “Türkiye is no longer a reliable neighbor for Iran.”

He described Erdoğan as “opportunistic” and predicted that the situation in Syria would soon shift. Rashvand warned Türkiye that “terrorists” would eventually “turn their guns toward their original creators.”

He also referred to Erdoğan as a gambler and wrote, “Today, Türkiye is playing with fire, even though its officials believe they can control the situation.”

Ali Akbar Darini, a political analyst, also claimed that the U.S., Israel, and Türkiye coordinated to occupy Aleppo and Hama, aiming to “cut off Iran’s land connection with Lebanon and overthrow Bashar al-Assad.”

According to him, Türkiye is cooperating with Israel and the U.S. and formed the “three pillars of the axis of evil” in the region.