A War of Perceptions

Much has been said about the anti-American billboards that went up last week in Tehran and were promptly yanked down by municipal authorities. Less remarked upon, however, is how the propaganda differed from hardliners' typical anti-American messaging. The street campaign, by singling out the diplomatic process and the role of Iran's own negotiators in that diplomacy, sought to make a public mockery of Tehran's negotiating team. That, it seemed, was the real subtext, rather than tired demonisation of America itself.

The banners obscured the two sides faces, but it was clear who was who. The Iranian negotiator was depicted wearing a suit and a goatee, suspiciously similar to that of Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister. While the banners emphasized American militarism they portrayed Iranian negotiators as naïve and inexperienced.

The banners were created by the House of Islamic Revolution Designers. Vahid Jalili, the brother of Iran’s former negotiator, is one of the influential figures in this outlet. While the message was loud and clear – “do not trust Americans, and do not trust these guys to be able to negotiate with them” – the tone has shifted.

The radicals’ tone is not fundamentalist anymore; if anything, it is super patriotic. They employ examples that they can portray as offensive or disrespectful of Iranian dignity or national pride. They are appealing to Iranians’ sense of nationalism, stirring the memories of past deception.

While it's true enough that the billboards came down in less than as week, the fact remains that in the battle for public perceptions, the pro-detente groups are at a marked disadvantage. Their views and arguments are absent from walls and billboards of Tehran and they seem to be refraining from taking their case to the public.

For now, it appears, Zarif and Rouhani are tactically seeking to avoid the negotiations with P5+1 from becoming a domestic issue, contested in daily newspaper and on the streets. Confining the talks to the realm of high policy will keep the decisions under Ayatollah Khamenei's jurisdiction, and minimise the interference of domestic opponents.

The pragmatists around President Rouhani know they cannot match the hardliners in resources, and also fear the attention a public opinion might create. When it came to dealing with the billboards, they used back channels and quietly managed to secure their removal. This does not mean the pro-government groups are silent. They are using their media outlets to emphasize their message and the need for moderation and new openings. To my mind, this signals a quiet, strategic resolve, which has been absent in the past attempts to moderate Iran's foreign policy.

It is ironic to note the prominence of one person’s image in this battle of perceptions. Alan Eyre, the State Department's Persian spokesperson, has become a household name in Iran. Iranian media have taken advantage of his fluency in Persian and have approached him for interviews. His photos appear frequently on the front pages of dailies in Tehran and on the cover of magazines across the city.

Mr. Eyre’s comments on his Facebook page make headlines on websites such as Tabnak and Alef. While few Iranian politicians besides Mr. Zarif dare to become the face of those who advocate negotiations with the United States, Mr. Eyre has become that face, easing the burden on the Iranians who promote diplomacy.

Just this week he has appeared on the cover of Tejarat e Farda, a pro free market magazine, and on the first page of Bahar, a reformist daily.

Despite the efforts of reformist media and pro-government groups one must admit their reactions do not measure up to the ultra-radicals’ barrage. The circle around Mr. Jalili, Iran’s former negotiator and the radicals’ favorite presidential candidate last spring, are using every opportunity to press the government. 

The urgent question is whether the hardliners will succeed in manipulating domestic politics before President Rouhani can reach a deal, one that can be accepted by Iranian people. For the time being, Mr. Eyre is assuring the Iranian people that they can have such a deal and it seems his reassurances have been effective.

In the battle of the billboards, it seems the pragmatists in government have won. Whether they will be as successful in their wider struggle remains to be seen.