Revolutionary Guards Play Rough with Rouhani

With the arrests of at least five independent journalists this week, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have launched a new offensive against President Rouhani and his administration, boosting the agenda of hardliners at the same time.

Rouhani spoke out against the arrests, which were carried out by the intelligence unit of the Guards on November 2.

But hardliners dismissed his criticism, depicting Rouhani as an enemy of the Guards and exploiting his apparent inability to do anything about the arrests.

“The head of the government accuses a security institution of a stitch-up and of misusing the word ‘infiltration,'" the headline on Dolat-e Bahar, a pro-Ahmadinejad website, read. Supporters of the former president love nothing more than highlighting the tensions between the Revolutionary Guards and the president, and the current climate is just perfect for this. The hardline coalition the Islamic Revolution Stability Front, known for galvanizing opposition against many of  Rouhani’s key policies in the past, also saw an opportunity to hit out at the president.

An Unwieldy Team in Need of a Boost

At the same time, this response from hardliners has exposed the vulnerability of the unwieldy group, highlighting rifts among some of the hardliners’ most powerful figures.

Over the past two years the Stability Front, which is mostly made up of Ahmadinejad supporters and former officials in his adminstration, has gradually become weaker. Not only are divisions among some of the most influential figures behind the movement widening, but the political influence of their “spiritual leader,” Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, has also waned, leading to further cracks in the coalition. This vulnerability has led to a failure of some of the movement’s most influential figures to form a formidable, organized network with a clear, unified mission. These figures include former nuclear chief negotiator Saeed Jalili, former health minister Kamran Bagheri Lankarani, former speaker of parliament Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel and Ahmadinejad’s “moral advisor,” the cleric Morteza Agha-Tehrani.

Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad himself lacks credibility, as he and former senior members of his cabinet face mounting legal cases and political and economic scandals. One MP has claimed that at total of 14 former senior officials are currently serving time in prison.

So....the Revolutionary Guards Step in

Other hardliners — including vigilante group Ansar-e-Hezbollah (“Followers of the Party of God”), known for organizing rallies against “bad hejab" and for their opposition to women being allowed in sports stadiums — as well as a number of Friday Prayers leaders and military figures, lack the charisma, clear agendas and organizational expertise required to tip the political balance in their favor. As a result, the current political climate is decidedly more moderate — albeit still conservative — than it has been in recent times. 

In the past — most notably during the first term of reformist president Mohammad Khatami in the late 1990s — the judiciary has played a key role in sabotaging government policies and reconfiguring the political landscape.

Although the judiciary is certainly having an impact on the current climate, the Revolutionary Guards have seized the moment. Not only do the Guards have powerful political influence and strong links with the country’s security apparatus, the corps is well positioned to have an impact on the economy as well. The Revolutionary Guards can easily disrupt Rouhani’s foreign policy initiatives and organize social and cultural movements that push back against the government.  

Taking this into consideration, it is clear that the most recent power clash in Iran is not about a few few hardliner military figures and President Rouhani — it is actually about two key establishment institutions going head to head. In this week’s arrests, the battle was between the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence unit and Rouhani’s Intelligence Ministry.

The Impression of Unity — and a Man with Real Power

This scenario is ideal for hardliners. It lends further legitimacy to political opponents and saps the administration’s energy, making it cautious and less able to maneuver. With the Guards and Rouhani locked in confrontation, hardliners are able to forge new solidarity and shared vision across their disparate groups, or at least appear as if they are unified. Political quarrels between the groups become marginalized and seem inconsequential.

So with the Guards in firm, very public opposition against Rouhani, hardliners can gain some confidence, and some ammunition. Even if hardliner candidates perform badly in next year’s parliamentary elections, they do not necessarily need that victory to damage Rouhani. The Guards can do that for them.

At this juncture, the Revolutionary Guards command considerable influence on both Iranian foreign and domestic policy. Over the past two years, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the Guards’ chief commander, has responded to statements made by Rouhani as if he is the leader of an opposition party at least five times. It would be a mistake to think that comments from hardliners, whether coming from parliament or the Assembly of Experts, have the same clout as comments from Jafari. Those hardliners have limited influence and little chance of effecting real change — whereas Jafari, as Guards commander, is on another level altogether. He can have an impact.

This week’s arrests of journalists is a clear example of this impact and power. Certainly what the president says matters, but it does not, in the end, decide the outcome for these individuals, or for society. Politics and influence is of course never a fair game. As with a football match, expert players and a clear plan attack have their uses. But a disruptive player from the opposite side can really change the outcome — particularly if the referee refuses to acknowledge when that side has fouled. And this is exactly what the Revolutionary Guards are doing for their team the hardliners. Disruptive and cunning, they have stepped into the political arena just when the hardliners need them, and their impact will be felt.

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