Second Spikes, Shortages and a Continued Policy of Distorting the Data

New restrictions to combat coronavirus were set to come into effect in Tehran on Saturday, July 18. And yet, in her daily briefing, the health ministry’s spokeswoman made no mention of the critical situation in the nation’s capital, and cited only 14 provinces out of 26 as being in a “red” state, or state of emergency.

Dubai-based Emirates airlines resumed flights to the Iranian capital on Friday, July 17 after a five-month lapse because of shutdowns to curb the spread of coronavirus. The 16 passengers on the Emirates flight from Dubai passed through a disinfection tunnel and their body temperature was checked upon arrival at Tehran’s airport. “My colleagues and I screened the passengers for symptoms with interviews and we also have thermal sensors,” said Nadia Piri, one of the airport’s resident doctors. Airport deputy head Mohammad Reza Karimian claimed that a number of airlines had asked if they could resume flights to Iran but he stopped short of naming any of them.

Despite the danger posed by large gatherings and the risk of spreading coronavirus, President Rouhani instructed the Minister of Interior Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli to cooperate with the relevant agencies to prepare guidelines for holding mourning ceremonies for the martyrdom of the Shia saint Imam Hossein in September as soon as possible, and to submit them to the National Coronavirus Taskforce. As a matter of routine, however, he did emphasize the necessity for people to socially distance and said: "it is necessary to prevent  gatherings that can facilitate the outbreak of the dangerous disease in society by continuously informing people and asking them to avoid holding celebrations and mourning ceremonies.”

The health ministry continues to underreport the ravages of the epidemic in Iran. In the 24-hour period covering July 17, 2,379 new coronavirus cases were identified, and 1,852 out of that number have been hospitalized, bringing the total number of infections since the coronavirus outbreak to 269,440, according to the health ministry’s spokeswoman, Dr. Sima Sadat Lari. With 183 new fatalities, she said, the total death toll in Iran stood at 13,791.

The new school year will start on September 6, announced education minister Mohsen Haji-Mirzaei. In “white” zones where the risk of coronavirus was very low, he said, classes will be held in-person; in “yellow” zones, where the alert is slightly higher, there will be a combination of in-person and remote learning; in “red” zones all classes will be held online.

In a letter to the Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade, Mohammad Reza Shanehsaz, the head of the Food and Drug Administration, warned of a shortage of masks as well as of raw material for making masks, and highlighted the high cost of both. He also warned that masks greatly vary in price and that the network for their distribution is disorganized. 

Provinces Round-up

The number of coronavirus cases has increased in Iran, reported the health ministry’s spokeswoman Dr. Sima Sadat Lari in her daily briefing. She said the provinces of East Azerbaijan, Ilam, Bushehr, Razavi Khorasan, Khuzestan, Zanjan, Golestan, Mazandaran, Kerman and Fars are on “red” alert, but the number of infections, hospitalizations and fatalities have fallen in the provinces of Kermanshah, West Azerbaijan, Hormozgan and Kurdistan.

Many residents of Kurdistan have been infected for a second time, according to Ebrahim Ghaderi, vice president of Kurdistan University of Medical Science. He reported that 305 Covid-19 patients were currently being treated in Kurdistan’s hospitals, 76 of them in intensive care units. He said the number of hospitalized patients had declined compared with a few weeks previously, but that the number was still three times higher than the number of hospitalizations throughout April and May.

So according to Dr. Sadat Lari, the four provinces of Kermanshah, West Azerbaijan, Hormozgan and Kurdistan have gone from “red” to “orange” states of alert, while the two provinces of Fars and Kerman are now “red,” the highest state of alert. What is not clear, however, is why she did not cite other “red” or “orange” provinces in the country. 

Based on the health ministry’s criteria and according to information published by the ministry and the universities of medical sciences across the country, the provinces of Tehran, Alborz, South Khorasan and Sistan and Baluchistan are now “red” and the provinces of Qom, Ardebil, Isfahan, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Lorestan, Hamedan, Yazd and North Khorasan are “orange.”

Some provinces have been “red” states for an ongoing period of time — cases and fatalities continue to rise and there are no encouraging signs of them dropping consistently. According to reports, restrictions have been re-imposed in Ilam for the third consecutive week and in West Azerbaijan for the second consecutive week.

In some provinces, restrictions have either been generally ignored or have been ineffective because of their scope or lax enforcement. For instance, Abbas Ali Dorosti, vice president of Tabriz University of Medical Science, asked the judiciary, the Ministry of Interior, and the provincial government to come up with stricter regulations to ensure compliance with health protocols. He said that as of July 17, the number of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in East Azerbaijan was higher than what it had been during the first peak of the pandemic in March and April. Despite there being a ban on gatherings and exhibitions, exhibitions had been held without permits.

New restrictions were due to take effect in Tehran on July 18. According to deputy health minister Mohsen Farhadi, reception halls, coffee shops, indoor swimming pools, water parks, playground and zoos would be closed and gatherings, public ceremonies and contact sports such as wrestling, Judo and Taekwondo would be banned. Also, he said, government offices must arrange for one-third of their employees to work remotely, with the priority given to employees who suffer from underlying diseases or who are physically vulnerable.

The spread of coronavirus in Yazd province escalated, and the number of hospitalizations in the province had increased three times, from 70 to 235, over the last 40 days. According to Dr. Mohammad Nouri Shadkam, vice president of Yazd Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, only 35 percent of the people in Yazd were complying with health protocols.

Inconclusive Information on Testing 

Officials said Iran’s capacity to produce PCR (polymerase chain reaction) and RNA (ribonucleic acid) test kits had reached 6,610,000 units per month and, as of July 17, 2,157,000 units had been donated or sold to an NGO, the Board of Trustees for Patients Treatments with Currency Savings, as well as to the health ministry and the universities of medical sciences, according to Mostafa Ghanei, chairman of the National Coronavirus Taskforce’s Scientific Committee.

Ghanei did not specify how many of these kits were for diagnosing coronavirus infections and how many were for identifying anti-bodies. Regardless, if Ghanei is correct, by July 17, Iran had conducted a maximum of 25,000 coronavirus tests per day.  If it can be assumed that close to 50 percent of the kits the ministry cited, or three million per month, diagnose Covid-19 infections, then Iran is able to perform 100,000 tests per day.