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Special Features

Iran on Brink of Third Wave of Coronavirus

September 16, 2020
Pouyan Khoshhal
5 min read
Less than two weeks after schools reopened reports have surfaced of many Iranian students coming down with Covid-19
Less than two weeks after schools reopened reports have surfaced of many Iranian students coming down with Covid-19

Two weeks since the religious holidays, as predicted, Iran now appears to be on the brink of a third wave of domestic coronavirus outbreak. The most significant contributing factors in the recent surge in cases are festivities and gatherings during the holy month of Muharram, holiday travel and, additionally, the recent reopening of schools and universities.

On Wednesday, September 16, health minister Ghasem Jan-Babaei warned of a high number of new infections among children and the adolescents. “The reason fewer children were infected during the first wave was that the schools were closed in March,” he said. “But now more children have been afflicted, this is speeding up transmission of the virus from them to other members of their families. In this new phase, we are losing many elderly people.”

It followed news the previous day that the number of coronavirus cases in Tehran alone had soared from 900 to 1,800 in a week. Payam Tabarsi, the vice president of Tehran’s Masih Daneshvari Hospital, warned that the number of Covid-19 outpatients had almost tripled. “Unfortunately,” he added, “we are getting close to a third wave.”

Health minister Saeed Namaki claimed: “Because of the new surge that is gathering pace in the country, I did not sleep a wink last night.” Like many other Iranian officials, Namami praised the organizers of Muharram ceremonies for following the guidelines, but blamed holiday travelers who ignored “our pleadings to avoid traveling.” In other words, the events were not at fault – just those that attended them.

The situation in Tehran appears to be being mirrored across the country, with at least 27 of 31 Iranian provinces now coed “red” or “orange”: that is to say, in a state of high alert. But on Wednesday the health minister also conceded that the color-coding system officials have deployed for the past few months could be confusing and counterproductive.

“Our planning for the short term and medium term must be flexible,” Namaki said, “and it must not be based on the red, orange, yellow and white states of alerts because the situation in these zones can change very rapidly and this will lead to confusion.”

 

‘Too Early’ to Consider Shutting Schools

Not two weeks since schools reopened in Iran, reports have already surfaced of some students being hospitalized or even dying because of Covid-19 – despite the fact that as younger people, they should be the most resilient to coronavirus disease. The National Coronavirus Taskforce and President Rouhani’s administration insisted on reopening schools despite widespread concern, including on the part of medical professionals in Iran, about the impact it would have.

Mohammad Mohsen-Beigi, director-general of the education ministry’s health department, argued that available evidence did not support the claim the reopening of the schools had led to an increase in cases. It was therefore not yet clear, he said, whether schools should be closed again or not.

 “The authority for making this decision rests with the National Coronavirus Taskforce and, as of now, they not made such an announcement,” he said. “Note that the schools were reopened around two weeks ago and, for the moment, we have no evidence that the reopenings have increased the rate of coronavirus infections. We need more time to consider this issue.”

 

In the Midst of a Pandemic, Winter Flu Rears its Head

The reopening of schools, Muharram mourning ceremonies and the approaching cold season are harbingers of more difficult times to come. In recent days, health ministry officials and the Iranian Red Crescent Society have made divergent claims about the availability and distribution of ordinary winter flu vaccine. One of these was that Iran had imported 10 to 12 million doses of this year’s vaccine, and it was promised that the distribution of the vaccine would start at the beginning of autumn.

But on Wednesday, September 16, Saeed Namaki revealed that the promised doses of vaccine have not been even purchased. “We are facing difficulties in transferring currency to purchase the flu vaccine,” he said. “The deputy head of the Food and Drug Administration reported that the bank that was supposed to receive the funds for the flu vaccine has refused to transfer the money – and the channel for transferring currency has been blocked by sanctions. Of course, I do not want to make anybody nervous, because our efforts continue.”

 

Provinces Round-up

The situation in Isfahan, according to provincial officials, is now critical. In the past 40 days five expecting mothers in the province have died from Covid-19 and the number of coronavirus hospitalizations has exceeded 3,000.

The number of fatalities in the Isfahan has also tripled, reported Dr. Behrouz Kalidari of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences. On Wednesday, he said, “2,700 new coronavirus patients were diagnosed across Iran, 938 of whom were in Isfahan. In other words, 40 percent of these cases were in Isfahan and this is the highest rate of infectionsin the country.” The daily number of coronavirus deaths, he said, was equivalent to one fatal minibus crash per day in Isfahan; in the past 55 days Covid-19 has claimed the lives of at least 740 people in the province.

Dr. Kalidari also had some bad news about the aftermath of school reopenings. “In the past two weeks,” he said, “48 teachers have been infected, 183 teachers have at least one Covid-19 patient at home, 163 students have been infected and 2,836 of students have an infected member in their family.”

In her daily briefing for September 16, health ministry’s spokeswoman Dr. Sima Sadat Lari announced the official coronavirus statistics for the past 24 hours:

Dr. Lari also reported that currently 13 provinces are in a red state of alert and 15 provinces are in an orange state:

 

This is part of IranWire's coronavirus chronology. Read the full chronology

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