Does Iran Have a Chance in the World Cup?

This article is part of a 22-part miniseries on the history and stars of Iranian football released ahead of Iran's participation in Group B of the 2022 Qatar World Cup in November. You can explore the rest of the series here.

Group B is arguably the strongest group heading for Qatar in November. All four teams ranked in the top decile of FIFA’s official list at the time of the draw: England stood in fifth place, the USA in 15^th, Wales in 18^th and Iran in 21^st place out of some 221 teams worldwide.

The non-advancement of three teams in the top 18 – Italy, Colombia and Spain – and Qatar (ranked 51^st) being placed in the top group only due to it being the host, means this group is potentially harder to beat than Group A with Ecuador, Senegal and the Netherlands.

At the same time, though, Iran’s national football team has just had one of its best-performing qualifying rounds on record, and in the past has done remarkably well up against difficult opponents in the World Cup.

In 2018 Iran faced Morocco, Spain and Portugal. The team was rated 30^th out of 32 participating teams in terms of likelihood to win by the International Center for Sports Studies (CIES) in Switzerland, and a two percent chance to advance out of the group stage. Team Melli went on to beat Morocco 1-0, lost 1-0 to Spain and tied 1-1 with Portugal, only just losing out on advancing to the next stage.

In 2014, Iran also did not advance out of its group but managed goalless draw with Nigeria, which was the top African team according to FIFA’s rankings at the time. The team gave a stunning performance against Argentina and even had a shot at winning before being defeated by Lionel Messi's goal in the 90th minute.

This year, the Iranian national team was placed in Group B of the World Cup qualifiers in Asia. It had eight wins, one draw and one defeat, placing it above South Korea, the UAE, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. It also scored the highest number of goals in the group – a total of 15 – matched only by Australia in Group A, and conceded just 4 goals.

The strongest point of the Iranian national team going into the World Cup is its attack line; Mehdi Taremi, the striker from Porto, and Bayer Leverkusen’s Sardar Azmoun are probably the most dangerous pair on the attack in Asia.

Attacking midfielders Saman Qodus, of Brentford, Feyenoord’s Alireza Jahanbakhsh and Ali Gholizadeh of Charlevoix are also ones to watch. Together, these players’ technique, sheer speed and high-scoring record, as well as the fact that there isn’t too much distance between them in terms of overall capability, mean Iran is, on paper and from a technical perspective at least, not without a chance in Group B.