Zarif (Indirectly and Tepidly) Invites Saudi Arabia to Reconcile over Yemen

On October 26, as the spokesman for the Yemeni Houthis paid his second visit to Iran in less than three months, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted: “Met with Yemen’s Mohammad Abdul-Salam in Tehran today. Discussed range of issues, including latest efforts to end the Saudi-led war and the humanitarian catastrophe.”

Zarif was referring to the Saudi-led military operations in Yemen in coalition with countries in the region. Saudis recognize Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi as the legitimate president of Yemen, whereas the Islamic republic recognizes the Houthis, officially called Ansar Allah (“Supporters of God”), who have taken over the Yemeni capital Sanaa. Mansur Hadi is currently in exile in Saudi Arabia.

The situation in Yemen is very complex. The United Arab Emirates [UAE] recently pulled some of its forces from Yemen’s southern port of Aden. The UAE supports Aden’s separatists, while the Saudis support Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. There are reports that Saudi Arabia is working to end the power struggle between the two sides through reaching a compromise and by making Aden the capital again — it had previously been the capital of the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen) until that country's unification with the Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) in 1990. In trying to end the struggle and cementing a new coalition, Saudi Arabia hopes to strengthen the anti-Houthi alliance.

Following Mohammad Abdul-Salam’s earlier visit to Iran and his meeting with Ayatollah Khamenei, an attack on Saudi oil facilities on September 14 reduced Saudi oil production by 5.7 million barrels a day. The Houthis took credit for the attack but Saudi officials quickly pointed the finger at Iran. Following the Saudis, the US and France also accused Iran of being responsible for the attack, although currently no hard or reliable evidence of Iran’s involvement has been presented.

The major justification for blaming Iran for the attack was earlier statements by Iranian officials, including President Hassan Rouhani, implicitly threatening oil transportation in the Persian Gulf, and referring to Saudi military operations in Yemen an “aggression” that must be confronted. It was not long after these statements that an Iranian oil tanker was hit and damaged by two missiles in the Red Sea. Iran implicitly accused Saudi Arabia of firing the missiles.

The Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia do not have diplomatic relations; their quarrel over Yemen is currently at its height. Five years ago, with the Houthi insurgency and their occupation of Sanaa, Yemen entered a crisis that first led to a civil war and then to Saudi Arabia’s large-scale military intervention against the Houthis.

Now the Islamic Republic’s Foreign Minister Zarif is implicitly inviting Saudi Arabia to work with Iran to solve the Yemeni crisis. However, no matter what, the two sides will not agree to give more than minimum political concessions for such a rapprochement. Now that the Saudi-led coalition seems to be on the verge of setting aside its own differences in the fight against Iran-backed Houthis, it is not likely that Saudi Arabia will be eager for such a reconciliation. Neither it is likely that Iran will suddenly be ready to accept suggestions that the Houthis play only a small role in any future Yemeni government.

Related Coverage:

Are Sanctions the Biggest Problem for Iran’s Economic Diplomacy?, October 23, 2019

Zarif’s Conciliatory Tone on Turkey’s Invasion of Syria, October 16, 2019