Iran and Trump: Nine Likely Hot Spots

 

Donald Trump’s campaign promises were ambitious, complex, unclear, and sometimes contradictory. When translated into policies, these promises will affect the majority of countries around the world, either directly or indirectly, including, of course, Iran. 

Which of these issues could potentially turn into hot spots for confrontation? Which of them will represent potential cooperation between President-elect Trump and the Islamic Republic of Iran?

1. Muslim Immigration 

Donald Trump has talked about banning Muslims from entering the United States. He then later modified his language when accepting the Republican nomination for president, and said the country "must immediately suspend immigration from any nation that has been compromised by terrorism until such time it's proven that vetting mechanisms have been put in place." But, almost immediately, he denied that he was going to go any easier on Muslims.

It is quite possible that Iranian citizens could be swept up in Trump’s proposed ban. This could fan anti-American sentiments in Iran — but it will not likely turn into a decisive flashpoint.

2. Syria and ISIS

Donald Trump has spoken against attempts to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and he has talked about more cooperation with Assad’s ally Russia. Defeating ISIS was a higher priority than persuading Assad to step down, he told Reuters in October. He has said that ISIS’ occupation of Mosul has provided Iran with a dangerous opportunity, but in general, during his campaign, Trump focused more on ISIS than the conflicts in Iraq and Syria. However, both countries could potentially become serious flashpoints between Iran and the US under Trump’s policies.

3. Projection of US Military Might

Trump champions a hyper-powerful US military that nobody would dare to challenge. About the Iranian navy in the Persian Gulf he had this to say: “And by the way, with Iran, when they circle our beautiful destroyers with their little boats and they make gestures that our people — that they shouldn't be allowed to make, they will be shot out of the water.”

This might be seen as mere bragging and posturing, but it has the potential to have a knock-on effect, leading to dangerous unforeseen events. In recent years, Iranian hardliners — and especially its military officials — have tried to project a dominant and triumphant image of Iran in the Persian Gulf. They demand for the US to reduce its presence in this strategic body of water, but it is clear that the image-conscious Trump cannot tolerate such a situation.

4. Iran and Terrorism

Trump has called Iran “the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism,” responsible for terrorist acts in 25 countries. He has said that Iran is now flush with cash released to it as part of the nuclear agreement. Iran will use this money to expand its terrorist activities, he has said. 

But what is President-elect Trump going to do about it? He has promised to work with Israel, Jordan and Egypt to fight regional groups including Hezbollah and Hamas. If he goes ahead with this promise, this issue could turn into a direct and deadly flashpoint, with Iran pitted against Trump.

5. Saudi Arabia

Donald Trump has blamed Saudi Arabia for the 9/11 terrorist attacks and has threatened to stop purchasing oil from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. This is music to the ears of the leaders of the Islamic Republic. But Trump has also set conditions for not going ahead with his threat. He wants Saudi Arabia to dispatch ground forces to fight ISIS and pay the US for the expenses it incurs in fighting ISIS. He has also suggested that Saudi Arabia is likely to acquire nuclear weapons, and had given no indication that as president he would directly oppose it. Given Iran's relations with Saudi Arabia, Trump’s stance could directly conflict with Iran's interests in the region and lead to a set of new hostilities in the Middle East.

6. Human Rights

During his campaign, Trump paid scant attention, if any, to the issue of human rights. This can only make the Islamic Republic happy. Iran has repeatedly accused the United States of promoting Iranophobia by focusing on the situation of human rights in Iran. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei views the United States with a complete lack of trust, and insists that the moment a dispute is solved, another dispute arises. For example, when the nuclear agreement was signed in summer 2015, the US government immediately shifted its focus to Iran's missile program or its human rights record. Trump’s neglect of human rights might motivate the leaders of Islamic Republic to believe they can come to new agreements with the US without much fear of a Trump administration pressuring them on human rights violations in Iran.

7. Trade and Money

Donald Trump has criticized the fact that non-American companies benefit from new trade agreements with Iran, opportunities that have emerged following the nuclear deal. It is not clear what would happen if American companies did deal with Iran and inject money into its economy, because Trump has said that Iran is using the financial benefits of the nuclear agreement to fund terrorism. Yet, for Trump, business and profits are of key importance. So it is conceivable that his presidency could be starting point for more American business presence in Iran, or at least a reduction in tensions when it comes to the business environment. 

8. Who will Trump Deal with?

Trump’s campaign statements about Iran deviate from the more familiar US line. He has not talked in terms of Iranian hardliners and Iranian moderates and appears to want to deal with the Islamic Republic as a whole and not with its constituent parts. It is not clear how or if this attitude will change once Trump is in the White House and starts to consult his advisors and government agencies. Neither it is clear whether such an attitude will lead to negative or positive outcomes.

When Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was Iran’s president, President Obama changed tactics and decided to open a secret channel of communication with the supreme leader, bypassing the Iranian president. It is quite possible that Donald Trump could do something similar, bypassing President Rouhani’s government and Iranian moderates to directly make deals with the hardliners. This would seriously threaten the political fate of President Rouhani and his supporters.

9. The Nuclear Agreement

Trump has vowed to apply pressure on Iran regarding the terms of the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In the past, he has said he would consider imposing harsher sanctions to force Iran to concede on some parts of the deal, though foreign policy experts argue that he is unlikely to attempt to fully renegotiate the nuclear deal. Any attempts to tear up the deal would trigger international opposition and open up serious political confrontation between Iran and the US. Senior Iranian officials’ first  reactions to Trump’s victory were about the fate of the nuclear agreement, clearly demonstrating their anxieties around the matter. 

Iranian leaders are not specifically worried about the nuclear agreement itself. Instead, they worry about the consequences of Trump’s approach to policy. Over the last year, Iran has consistently tried to create a safe environment for attracting foreign investment. Trump could undermine these achievements. In such a scenario, the negative effects on Iran’s economy could be disastrous, affecting people from all political persuasions. 

 

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Undoubtedly, Trump’s victory has introduced huge uncertainty for Iran, as well as for the rest of the world. Domestic, regional and global events could change the context and the direction of his policies. As with the rest of the globe, Iranians and Iran’s leaders are expecting surprises, and they wait to see what impact they have on Iran's economy and its relationships on the international stage.