ISIS Still Active in Syria and Iraq

Over the last month, ISIS has increased its attacks on security forces in both Syria and Iraq, and its sleeper cells have become more active in both countries. The attacks followed reports by media outlets affiliated to the Syrian regime on April 9 that ISIS had taken control of large parts of the city of Al-Sukhnah and neighboring areas east of Homs, over which the regime's forces had lost control.

On May 17, IranWire correspondent Umar Al-Ahmad reported that ISIS has intensified its operations against Iranian militias, Syrian regime forces, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) militia in the governorates of Deir Al-Zour and Al-Raqqa, having launched several group attacks in the Deir Al-Zour desert.

Al-Ahmad reported that ISIS had claimed responsibility for a bombing in the town of Al-Kasrat, south of Al-Raqqa, where its cells are active in areas controlled by SDF militia, and that it had also kidnapped three members of the Syrian Air Force Intelligence between the towns of Al-Sabkha and Maadan in the Al-Raqqa countryside.

ISIS also detonated an explosive device on a military vehicle on the road to Al-Jareniyah in Tal Uthman outside Al-Raqqa, and targeted a SDF military vehicle in the town of Jadid Uqidat, east of Deir Al-Zour. In addition, ISIS cells targeted several SDF members in a number of towns in the countryside outside Deir Al-Zour. 

These ISIS operations have coincided with the National Defense Militia, alongside Iranian militias, sending large military reinforcements to  the Deir Al-Zour desert following repeated ISIS attacks on the regime and Iranian militia locations in the Syrian desert. 

Al-Ahmad confirmed that ISIS launched an attack at noon on May 17 on positions belonging to the Russian-backed Fifth Corps on the Damascus-Deir Al-Zour Road near the Kabajib area, managing to cut off the international road between Kabajib and Al-Shula for several hours. 

According to Al-Ahmad, ISIS set fire to a truck belonging to the Syrian regime's forces, and another small vehicle that was heading to Deir Al-Zour carrying members of the Syrian regime. 

ISIS furthermore beheaded a number of members of regime forces and captured others, bringing the regime's losses in the attack to seven dead and at least 13 wounded. Among the dead were Hamad Al-Ahmad Al-Amin; Lieutenant Ahmad Sultan from the ranks of the Fifth Corps' Seventh Brigade; Amer Abud Al-Bahar, a leader of the regime forces' tribal militia; and his brother Ali Al-Bahar, a leader in the SDF militia. After intervention from Amer Abud Al-Bahar, Ali Al-Bahar had been granted entry into Damascus for treatment following an injury he had previously suffered. A woman accompanying them was also killed.

The official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported that on May 18, seven ISIS operatives escaped from Al-Hawl prison in the eastern Al-Hasaka countryside, which is controlled by US-backed SDF groups. The SDF groups announced that it had mobilized its ranks to search for the escapees.

Increased ISIS Operations in Iraq

In recent days, ISIS's activities in Iraq have increased significantly. On May 5, ISIS launched attacks against Iraqi security forces and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Salah al-Din governorate, killing 11 and wounding two other PMF members.

Although the Iraqi government announced the defeat of ISIS in December 2017, ISIS cells have returned to their previous offensive tactics, carrying out ambushes on security forces, as well as kidnappings and executions.

On May 17, the Iraqi PMF reported on its operations in the Khaniqin area of Diyala governorate, east of the Iraqi capital Baghdad. It announced on Twitter: "A force from the PMF's 23rd Brigade has foiled an infiltration operation by the remnants of ISIS in the village of Ali Al-Sadoun in the Khaniqin district, forcing them to flee,” adding that it shot down a drone used by ISIS terrorists during the failed infiltration attempt.

Joint Iraqi forces continue their security operations in a number of Iraqi governorates and regions with the goal of eliminating any remnants of ISIS.

IranWire obtained a document issued by the Federal Intelligence and Investigation Agency in the Iraqi Ministry of Interior regarding the security operations. It warns of attacks by ISIS in the areas where attacks by the group actually took place, but this is not information that benefitted the Iraqi security forces.

What Kind of Presence Does ISIS Have in Iraq and Syria Following the End of the Caliphate?

In March 2019, the US-backed SDF captured the Syrian village of Al-Baghuz, which led to a formal end to the caliphate that ISIS had declared and which had reached its peak in 2015, spanning across large areas of ​​Iraq and Syria.

However, ISIS's loss of territory and the killing of its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has not stopped the organization from carrying out offensive operations, and between 20,000 and 25,000 ISIS fighters remain in Iraq and Syria according to estimates by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. The center also estimates that there are between 15,000 and 20,000 fighters with links to Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq.

ISIS has established safe havens in Syrian desert regions and the northeast along the Iraq-Syria border. From there, the organization is trying to restore its networks east and west of the Euphrates as part of its desert strategy.

It is worth noting that ISIS has lost large numbers of its leaders and fighters during the four-year international coalition’s war against it. It has faced intensive bombing operations and its members have fought battles against the Iraqi security forces, the SDF, the PMF and Tribal Mobilization Forces, as well as against several thousand Special Forces soldiers from the coalition countries, a number of armed Syrian opposition forces, and Turkish forces.