Türkiye’s Growing Role Reshapes Iran-Azerbaijan Relations

Iran and Azerbaijan’s relationship has become increasingly strained in recent years despite their shared cultural, historical, and religious ties.

Geopolitical disputes and ideological competition have created a complex dynamic between Tehran and Baku.

Iran fears Türkiye and Israel’s expanding influence in Azerbaijan, while Baku opposes Iran’s support for Shia groups and Armenia.

“What has intensified tensions in recent years are the geopolitical developments and shifts in the South Caucasus region,” sociologist Oral Hatami told IranWire.

He added: “The Second Karabakh War in 2020 and Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia transformed regional power dynamics.”

Parts of modern Azerbaijan were under Iranian control before the Gulistan and Turkmenchay treaties in the 19th century, leading some Iranian nationalist movements to consider Azerbaijan part of Iran’s historical sphere.

“The historical perspective regarding Azerbaijan is tainted with ideological views and Iran-centered nostalgia that do not accurately interpret historical events,” Hatami added. “This perspective needs revision.”

According to Hatami, this flawed historical narrative has not only shaped recent events but has also escalated tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan, ultimately harming both sides.

Key Concerns on Both Sides

One of the most sensitive issues in Iran-Azerbaijan relations is Iran’s effort to expand its influence in Azerbaijan through Shiism and the Islamic Republic’s security-driven perspective on Azeri Turks within Iran.

On one hand, Azerbaijan is wary of Iran’s religious influence over its Shia population. The government in Baku has repeatedly shut down religious centers linked to Iran and arrested or expelled clerics with ties to Tehran.

On the other hand, the Islamic Republic is concerned about the rise of Azeri nationalism within its borders and actively suppresses any related movements.

Iranian policymakers believe that certain Azeri Turk nationalist groups operate with indirect support from Azerbaijan and Türkiye, making this ideological and identity-based struggle a major point of contention between the two nations.

This confrontation has transformed their relationship into a geopolitical and intelligence rivalry.

Oral Hatami said: “For years, the Islamic Republic has invested in promoting Shia ideology to reshape the cultural and religious identity of Azerbaijan. But this strategy is not exclusive to its foreign policy toward a neighbor - it also targets Azeri Turks inside Iran.”

He added: “Azerbaijan’s government and people, having lived under Soviet rule for 80 years, recognize that fundamentalist ideologies like Shiism pose a threat to their country. This is why secularism has deep roots in Azerbaijan.”

Regarding Iran’s fears of Azerbaijani support for Azeri nationalism within its borders, Hatami said: “The root of these concerns lies in the Islamic Republic’s security-driven policies toward Azerbaijan.

“This security perspective, framed under the pretext of protecting territorial integrity, is deeply flawed. When a government denies basic rights to a segment of its own society, its policymakers assume that a security approach is the only way to maintain control.”

Azerbaijan-Israel Cooperation: Iran’s Strategic Concern

One of the primary sources of tension between Iran and Azerbaijan is Baku’s extensive cooperation with Israel.

Israel is a key supplier of advanced weaponry to Azerbaijan, and according to some sources, Israeli drones played a crucial role in Azerbaijan’s victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh War.

The military partnership alarms Tehran, as Iran believes Israel uses Azerbaijani territory for espionage and covert operations against Iran.

Journalist Reza Talebi said: “The Israel-Azerbaijan relationship is not the only factor in Iran’s tensions with Baku. Their ties have lasted for 30 years, and Azerbaijan remains a major supplier of oil to Israel, a trade that continued even during the recent Gaza events.”

Talebi also highlighted the relatively low trade volume between Iran and Azerbaijan.

He said: “Azerbaijan’s trade with Iran is around $580 million - a figure that is less than its arms trade with Israel, which exceeded $825 million before the Second Karabakh War. A significant portion of these weapons were donated by Israel to Azerbaijan.”

Talebi believes that every sovereign nation has the right to maintain diplomatic relations with UN member states.

He explained: “Given its ongoing conflict with Israel, the Islamic Republic is naturally concerned about Israel’s presence in Azerbaijan. However, Iran’s weak and unjust support for Armenia in the recent Karabakh war has diminished its credibility as a critic of Baku’s policies.”

Talebi added: “The Israel-Azerbaijan relationship is not the only reason for tensions between Baku and Tehran. But Iran tends to frame all issues - economic, cultural, and geopolitical - within the context of Israel, which further escalates the security-driven nature of their disputes.”

Türkiye’s Role and the Shift in Regional Power Dynamics

Türkiye is one of Azerbaijan’s key allies and has played a crucial role in shaping the country’s recent developments.

Azerbaijan’s victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh War may not have been possible without Türkiye’s direct military, political, and economic support.

Ankara’s growing military presence in Azerbaijan, along with extensive cooperation in various sectors - including the establishment of military bases and joint infrastructure projects - has significantly strengthened its influence in the South Caucasus.

However, Iran has traditionally maintained close ties with Armenia, viewing it as a strategic ally against Turkish and Azerbaijani influence in the region.

In recent years, Tehran has sought to deepen its relationship with Yerevan and counterbalance its diminishing regional role by investing in alternative transportation routes and infrastructure projects.

Türkiye’s expanding role in the Caucasus presents a serious challenge for Iran. Tehran fears the formation of a Turkish geopolitical axis that could undermine its influence in the region.

As a result, Iran-Azerbaijan relations have increasingly become entangled in broader regional and strategic rivalries.

Reza Talebi explained that the Iran-Türkiye dynamic is more of a competitive rivalry than outright hostility.

He said: “While Iran and Türkiye have conflicting interests on issues like Syria, Kurdish affairs, and the Caucasus, these tensions are not as severe as Iran’s disputes with other neighbors, such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Azerbaijan.”