Why are Iran’s 2016 elections so important?

Back in March, during his Nowruz message to the country, First Deputy Iranian President Eshaq Jahangiri — who is also Secretary of the Central Council for the Kargizaran political party — emphasized the importance of next year’s parliamentary elections. He was not the only one: Throughout 2015, politicians, the media and religious leaders have made it clear that these elections count for a great deal. But why are these elections, the 10th in the Islamic Republic’s history, so important? And, for those interested in following all the nuances of Iran’s dense political atmosphere, what are the main things to look out for?

1.  The elections will measure President Rouhani’s victories and failures

The February parliamentary elections will be the first held since Hassan Rouhani was elected as president in June 2013. What happens at the polls says a lot about how he and his administration has performed — a judgment of his political integrity and a look at how policies have affected Iranian society.

2. The elections could have significant repercussions for the economy.

These also the first elections since the nuclear deal was signed — and since the West began to lift sanctions. If Rouhani’s reformists do not get the votes they need, the public will be less likely to be persuaded that the nuclear deal has been a success. This will in turn have an effect on Iran’s economy, still only at the very early stages of recovery. So failure in these elections would be a significant blow for the government, and pose a huge challenge for its economic team, which is under pressure from hardliners at the best of times. 

3. A government under pressure equals a powerful opposition 

An election defeat will mean intense political and psychological pressure for Rouhani and his allies, and give the opposition a good advantage going into 2017’s presidential election. Hardliners’ dreams of Rouhani being ousted will be closer to being realized.  

But Iran watchers know that a failure is not necessarily a precursor to larger scale defeat. After all, former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s allies lost badly in local elections after the 2005 presidential victory, and many of them gained ground afterward.

But the situation is somewhat different for Rouhani. Ahmadinejad knew he could always rely on hardliners, whereas Rouhani does not have the same reassurance. If the current situation is anything to go by, and if parliamentary majority stays with hardliners, Iran’s next parliament will create significant difficulties for Rouhani’s government, with the president being inundated with intense cultural, social and political pressure. Then the government could be accused of giving into compromise and mismanagement — and worse: corruption.

4. Hardliners could retain power...

Since Rouhani’s election in 2013, reformists in general have done well, securing more power and support across the board. But if hardliners’ maintain their influence in parliament, the political atmosphere will continue to feel strained and ambiguous. Reformists suffered significant defeats in 2009 elections, and then again in 2012 elections after the Council of Guardians, which vets parliamentary and other candidates, disqualified most of them from running.

5. ...But it could be a new opportunity for reformists 

Many believe the elections could pose a good opportunity for Rouhani and allies to re-enter Iranian politics after their 2009 defeat. Two years ago, they managed to gain key positions in local government, winning a majority in city council elections. It seems likely that, this time around, the Council of Guardians will allow the registration of most reformist candidates. There is good reason to believe they will do well in the forthcoming elections, commanding more influence in the overall political arena. 

6. New political players mean a shift in the political landscape

New players have emerged on the domestic political scene since the last elections, resulting in a considerable shift in the political landscape. Decades ago, discord between Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and the Militant Clerics Association led to the creation of the Kargozaran Sazandegi Party. And recently, the speaker of parliament, Ali Larijani, has expressed an interest in forming a new party. He holds considerable political influence but no real power to bring about a new party. New reformist figures with good support have emerged, including Mohammad Reza Aref and Sadeq Kharazi, as have new parties like Etedal and Tosee, which has close ties to Rouhani’s government. At the same time, some of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's allies have made their political intentions clear. So February’s elections constitute a test for everyone, newcomers included. It could be argued that these elections could promise a better reflection of the true spirit of Iranian politics today. Certainly, there is the chance that they will have a significant impact on the future politics of the country. 

7. Hardliners are vulnerable

​Hardliners are currently in a very precarious situation. They continue to try to isolate Rouhani and his allies, but their main concern in the coming months is to hold off their own defeat. If they fail to win elections and hold the majority in parliament, it will damage the wider hardliner agenda, not merely the reputations and careers of the candidates that lose their seats. They will lose their leverage on President Rouhani and his government, and their opportunity to command influence further afield will be diminished. For them, this would constitute a double defeat. 

​It remains to be seen how the Iranian people will vote. But what is certain is that both sides — reformists and hardliners alike — will fight a hard and long battle to gain the upper hand.