As election season got underway in the United States, an unlikely group of well informed — and increasingly worried — commentators have been making their voices heard. Many middle-class Iranians, used to circumventing censorship to engage, argue and debate across Iranian social media, have been watching events closely. And they had a lot to say about what the US presidential election will mean for Iran.
A few days before the Iowa caucases, one Iranian commentator joked on Facebook that, since Hassan Khomeini had now been disqualified from running for an Assembly of Experts seat, President Rouhani had no choice but to put his support behind Bernie Sanders, one of the frontrunners for the Democrat ticket in the US elections.
The joke — one of many similar witty remarks doing the rounds on social media in recent days — says a lot about politics in Iran at the moment, a landscape that could change considerably after Iran’s forthcoming double elections for parliament and the Assembly of Experts and the US presidential election.
On January 25, Iran’s Guardian Council disqualified Hassan Khomeini — the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini, and a reformist — from running for the Assembly of Experts, one of Iran’s most powerful governing bodies. It was a blow for Rouhani, who is trying to shore up as much reformist influence as possible.
But some Iranians are paying much more attention to the US election than they are to Iran’s elections, which are scheduled for February 26. “I am sitting in my shop and listening to Trump and Clinton after the parties voted,” tweeted one Iranian after the Iowa result on February 1. “Customers are asking which candidates won.”
So who do Iranians think would be the best president? Who is best placed to honor the details set out in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the outcome of the nuclear deal? Who would be most likely to take steps to reverse parts of the agreement? Who would be most hostile to Iran? Who would be the most amenable?
If social media is anything to go by, Bernie Sanders is the favorite at the moment.
Some supporters of President Rouhani and those further to the left hope Sanders will secure the Democratic nomination, demonstrating a trend toward the left recently seen in the UK’s Labour Party and its recent election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader. “The real winner is Bernie,” wrote one Iranian on social media, buoyed by Hillary Clinton’s narrow win in Iowa. “He does not have the support of powerful lobbies nor the money of Super PACs [political action committees]. He relies on the support of the people.”
But some have expressed concerns about Sanders’ future and his chances against the Republican nominee for the presidency. “This Sanders has no shot at the presidency,” said one person. “Among the Democrats, only Hillary can defeat a Republican contender.”
Others doubt Sanders’ policies will ever have a chance of becoming reality. “Sanders’ words are pretty, but it is unlikely that even within eight years he can get them anywhere without the support of the private sector and its lobbies,” said one Iranian.
When it comes to Clinton, Iranians are extremely worried about her position on foreign policy. “Hillary Clinton is like the Republicans,” one person commented. “She is also a little confused and shaky.” Many fear that Clinton might treat Iran harshly, pinning their hopes on what they view as the tolerant and moderate approach of Bernie Sanders.
But these mostly young, mostly relatively well-off Iranians also have a lot to say about the Republican candidates, most of it pretty negative, with vehement criticism for each of the top Republican candidates — Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio. “Ted Cruz is even worse than Trump,” said one. “He is a first-rate neo-con like George W. Bush.”
Unsurprisingly, unfounded rumors thrive as well. According to some, Ted Cruz is married to the daughter of the late Iranian billionaire Hozhabr Yazdani — a good reason to support him, one person claimed. Others on social media denied the claim, but it continues to do the rounds.
Trump: An American Ahmadinejad?
Persian-language social media sites are well-populated with commentary about Donald Trump, and his loss in Iowa caught many Iranians by surprise. Many were relieved, believing that a President Trump would remind them too much of former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. “Aren’t you Americans ashamed of having a president with a face like Trump’s?” said one. “For eight years we did not dare say we were Iranians because of Ahmadinejad’s face.” Though anti-Trump jokes are popular, Iranians, on social media at least, have tended to be less worried about him. “The bigger danger is Cruz, who is a thousand times worse than Trump in wanting war,” wrote one person. “At least Trump is open to making deals.” Another said: “The victory of Ted Cruz over Donald Trump is like a deadly scorpion winning over a poisonous snake.”
Little by little, Iranians are coming to the conclusion that Marco Rubio might be the best bet for a Republican candidate. “Cruz and Trump are no different when it comes to common sense — just like Ahmadinejad and [the hardliner politician] Haddad Adel,” one Iranian said. “Marco Rubio is a little more like a human being.”
And Iranian-US comparisons continue, with people looking back to the battle between Ahmadinejad and reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi (who currently remains under house arrest). And while they are not implying a Trump vs Sanders election campaign could lead to widespread unrest on the streets of the United States as it did in Iran, they are warning each other — and the world — to expect the unexpected. As they well know, what happens in November 2016 in the US will have enormous repercussions elsewhere.
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