The Big Issues Swaying Tomorrow’s Elections

In the run-up to Friday’s double elections, both Iran’s media and the public have been busy predicting the outcome.

Recent weeks have seen a rise in opinion polls, with the Iranian public expressing views about favorite candidates, sharing predictions about whether parliament will continue to be dominated by hardliners, and assessing how the future of the Assembly of Experts, the governing body responsible for appointing the next supreme leader, will take shape. Iranian media has, of course, reported widely on the election and its competing rivals — with some outlets disseminating high volumes of propaganda to support key candidates and issues.

But how easy is it to predict the outcome of February 26’s elections? What surprises do the Iranian public have in store, and why has it been so hard to forecast? What will have an impact on the near future of Iran’s political landscape? From social networks to propaganda tactics, we look at a few of the key factors driving the elections.

 

1. Telegram: Today’s Tool of Choice

The 2016 elections have seen mobile apps join social networks as being the most popular way of sharing information and trying to influence voters’ decisions.

The Iranian Students’ News Agency reported in November 2015 that between 20 and 23.5 million Iranians were using the Telegram messenger and networking app, so it’s easy to imagine up to 25 million have turned to Telegram as the elections approached.  Telegram’s own figures state that 82 percent of its users in 14 countries are under 18 years old. If this is true for Iran, then at least 4 million Iranians who are eligible to vote currently use Telegram. Earlier this week, the conservative website Alef reported that the government planned to block Telegram, a worry expressed by Ali Bangi, director of ASL19, a Toronto-based technology and research organization, late last week.

 

2. State-Run Broadcasting vs. Networks Abroad

The Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) has shown little interest in boosting the turnout on the election day — and it’s not gone unnoticed, with people from the reformist camp in particular commenting on its refusal to motivate the electorate. But of course IRIB’s main job is about bolstering the regime, and it reflects the fears of hardliners and principlists — those with a fierce allegiance to what they see as the core values of the revolution. More people voting, especially in Tehran, could have negative consequences for them, and that’s something they want to avoid at all costs.

On the other hand, satellite networks and Persian-language radio stations abroad have been covering Tehran’s elections extensively, and recent estimates suggest that more than 70 percent of Iranians watch satellite networks — though not all of them have an interest in politics of course, and many will be tuning into London-based Manoto TV’s Stage, a music competition, on February 26 rather than paying attention to election results. Though it’s hard to know how much impact these networks will have on the elections, it’s fair to say they are definitely denting IRIB’s hold on the general public.

 

3. Whimsical New Faces

If the results of previous parliamentary elections are any indication, between 60 and 70 percent of the representatives elected will be new to parliament. Local issues are key here, especially in small towns, so the influence and standing of big national parties and coalitions are less of a factor.

The electorate knows from experience that, once elected, many of these new faces will change tack, and not only abandon issues they campaigned on, but also even swap political factions altogether. So it’s hard to know what parties — and what individuals — will win or lose in these elections.

 

4. Blurred Political Boundaries

It’s often the case that political boundaries become blurred in Iranian politics, but these elections have seen more overlap than usual. At times, it has not been easy to discern principlist/hardliner agendas from reformist ones. Then there are “moderates” and “independents,” who may present themselves as offering unique values, but whose goals are often recognizable across the political divides. Looking at the candidates and their policies, it’s hard to know which factions are actually going to do well, and this is true for both parliament and the Assembly of Experts.

 

5. Unpredictable Voters

Recent polls suggest Iranian voters base their decisions on the lists of candidates drawn up by the various factions and parties — a trend that has favored the reformists in the past, especially if the turnout is higher than usual, with undecided voters moving to the reformist camp at the last minute. But if voters fail to follow this trend, the hardliners may perform well, not least because they have put forward a list of candidates well known to the electorate and they employ a very sophisticated, well-organized propaganda strategy.  According to some surveys 55 percent of the electorate remain undecided.

 

6. The Rumor War

As in all elections, rumors, innuendos and targeted attacks are very much in play. In the last week, hardliners have worked hard to brand their rivals with a variety of unsavory slurs. First there was the “English list,” candidates that hardliners presented as being planted by Western governments to influence election results. When it came to the Assembly of Experts, this tactic has really had an impact. Then there were rumors that President Rouhani’s administration was guilty of financial corruption. Hardliners also instilled fear by claiming that if parliament became more reformist or moderate-leaning — essentially giving Rouhani and his allies more support — then subsidies for low-income voters would be cut — potentially its most effective tactic.

 

7. The Nuclear Agreement

Rouhani’s administration worked hard to ensure the nuclear deal was implemented before the elections. Though it succeeded, so far, it has not produced any tangible results for the majority of the country. Hardliners say the administration has missed key opportunities to boost business and combat unemployment, citing the purchase of Airbus planes in January as one example. Whether positive or negative, the short-term consequences of the nuclear agreement will undoubtedly affect election results. To what extent remains unclear.

 

8. The Puzzle of the Military

Iran’s military has been relatively silent — until earlier this week, when Qods Commander Ghassem Soleimani put his support behind Ali Larijani. At this stage, it’s not clear how much the vast and organized network of armed forces and its supporters across the country will help the hardliners. While Iran’s military might not be able to catapult a particular party to victory, its sheer numbers and reputation have the power to influence. So its recent silence adds an air of mystery to the whole affair.

 

9. Cracks in the Foundation

It is logical to assume that a considerable portion of the electorate will favor President Rouhani and his allies, primarily because of the nuclear deal. Yet Hassan Rouhani is the only one from the administration who has put himself forward for the Assembly of Experts. Could this suggest rifts in the administration? And what will this mean to the electorate’s decision-making process?

 

10. Voting Patterns

A high turnout, especially in big cities, remains a crucial factor in electoral victories. Tehran is home to at least 5.8 million eligible voters. If 60 percent of them vote, 3.4 million ballots will be generated. To be elected to parliament, each Tehran candidate needs more than 750,000 votes. In the last parliamentary elections, only five candidates received the minimum number of votes in the first round. If the majority of voters in this election do not vote, it is quite conceivable that this could happen again.

Predicting what will happen in tomorrow’s elections is even more challenging than usual. But what does seem to be clear is that Iran’s next parliament is going to look very different, with more overlaps in terms of agendas, further divisions between traditional political allies, and single-issue politics commanding a key place in the political landscape. New coalitions will form, local concerns will take center stage and unknown players will emerge with unexpected levels of influence. Perhaps not unlike the diverse country it represents, parliament will most likely resemble a sprawling archipelago, hard to map and a constant source of wonder and concern to those looking on. 

 

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