The Return of the Shia Messiah and the Iran-Saudi Conflict

Shia Muslims believe that their twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, or the “Imam of Time,” will return at the “end of time” to bring justice and peace to the world. They say the Imam, who, according to Shia Islam, disappeared from view in the ninth century, will reappear with Jesus Christ. In fact, there are many points of similarity between the Shia narrative and the Christian concept of the Second Coming, including the notion of an Anti-Christ.

As can be expected, during the course of their respective histories, there have always been both Christian and Shia movements that have believed that the end times were fast approaching. Both have pointed to portents and signs to back up their claims — despite the fact that the established Shia clergy frowns at such pronouncements.

Over the last five years, Iranian literature focusing on the imminent return of the Imam of Time has highlighted the importance of Arabia in this momentous event. Of course, Arabia has always been central to the narrative of Mahdi's second coming, or “Reappearance”, but in recent years it has been given more weight than ever before.

Let’s start with June 2011, when a CD entitled “The Coming is Nigh” enjoyed considerable popularity. The CD claimed that then President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was a chosen companion of the Imam of Time, and also supported the rumor that Mahdi would soon reappear in Saudi Arabia. The website Asr-e Iran published a premonition that, according to some in Ahmadinejad’s circle, the Imam was going to return on June 3, 2011, thus ending the stewardship of the Shia clergy who had been working on his behalf during his “occultation” or absence. When this happened, the Shia faithful would be in direct contact with Mahdi and, by implication, there would be no need for his deputies.

In the last several years, critics have accused Ahmadinejad’s associates of attempting to end the “Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist”, the founding principle of the Islamic republic, under the guise of anticipating Mahdi’s return. In the Shia tradition, before reappearing, the Imam will contact a group of select individuals. According to principalist media, a “deviant movement” led by Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, Ahmadinejad’s chief of staff, claimed that this phase would start in June 2011 and that they were the ones who would be chosen to be in direct contact with Mahdi.

Preconditions for the Second Coming

But such prognostications have not been limited to Mashaei and his circle. During a speech on September 12 of the same year, Ali Saeedi, the supreme leader’s representative to the Revolutionary Guards, discussed the “portents of the Reappearance” and said that “regional readiness” was a precondition for the return of the Imam of Time. He said that the Reappearance will not occur until conditions are right, which includes the Saudi king ruling Muslims and the Revolutionary Guards being “a tool for preparing the grounds.” 

In July 2012, Mehdi Taeb, the head of the so-called Ammar Strategic Base, an organization tasked with fighting the “soft war” against the Islamic Republic of Iran, told the Iranian people: “In the same way that we threw out the shah from the country, we must help the people of other countries so that this event will take place.”

But although such beliefs do exist among the clergy close to Khamenei, up until Ahmadinejad's presidency came to a close in 2013, his inner circle’s talk of the Reappearance led to sharp clashes between them and the principalists — those politicians and theoreticians who believe their values remain closest to the founding ideals of the Islamic Republic. 

On January 23, 2015, a new narrative of the Reappearance emerged following the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. On January 30, during a Friday Prayers address, Ahmad Jannati, secretary of the Guardian Council, congratulated all Muslims on the death — a comment that raised a few eyebrows but was not necessarily without its symbolic merit.  

In one of the best-known stories about the portents of Reappearance, the sixth Shia Imam Jafar Sadegh (702-765) was quoted as saying: “If you guarantee the death of Abdullah for me I will guarantee you the Reappearance of [Mahdi].” Of course, the fact that Imam Sadegh lived in the 7th century and “Abdullah” is a common name in the Islamic world did not stop Iranians looking for signs of Mahdi’s return. The quotation was published numerous times on many websites.

The Nuclear Threat to the Imam

“Mecca is not a safe place for the Reappearance of the Imam of Time,” said Mehdi Taeb not long after the quotations about Abdullah showed up in the media. “The evil and despicable Obama is the US Commander-in-Chief and he controls all the nuclear weapons. If [Mahdi] reappears, Mecca will be wiped out in a few minutes.”

But even before the death of King Abdullah, new signs of Mahdi’s reappearance began to emerge out of Syria and Iraq. According to the literature on the phenomenon, when the Reappearance happens, three prominent “movements” will be active: an uprising in Yemen, the Khorasan movement, led by a descendant of Prophet Mohammad (called a seyed) — both which will lead to the formation of a pious government — and the adversarial Sufyani movement. According to the Reapparance narrative, the movements emerging from Yemen and the Khorasan group will band together as allies to fight the Sufyani movement, which is recognized in hadiths to be anti-Mahdi.

It would not be too difficult to fit current events into this narrative — which has been featured in “second coming” literature for a long time. For example, the “Yemenis” could be read as the Houthis, currently fighting against the Saudi government with Iranian support. Some time ago this badge of honor was assigned to Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Lebanese Hezbollah, but recently, attention has turned to the Houthi Shias in Yemen.

The question of how ISIS fits in with the Sufyani has also been raised, with a number of religious authorities and principalist media outlets agreeing that it could be a sign of the emergence of the Sufyani. According to them, Saddam Hussein was the first Sufyani. Now that he is dead, we must expect a new one.

Playing According to the Scenario

There is no shortage of people who believe that Ayatollah Khamenei is the same Khorasani seyed mentioned in the famous lore. But Khamenei is not getting any younger. So if he happens to be gone before Mahdi returns, it is likely people with those beliefs will find another Khorasani seyed so everything can go ahead according to pre-planned scenario. This scenario also accommodates Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, the Saudi Shi’ite leader who was beheaded in January 2016, and General Ghasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s expeditionary Quds Force.

And these claims and interpretations are not confined to Iran. In recent years, Iraq has had its own share of prognosticators. Those Iranians who support the idea of the Reappearance have no need to feel lonely.

With all these signs, it is only logical that some Iranian officials have not been unduly alarmed by recent events in the Middle East. After all, these events point to an outcome for which they have been wishing and waiting. “The events in Syria were bound to happen,” said Ali Saeedi, Ayatollah Khamenei’s representative to the Revolutionary Guards. “The portents of Reappearance are all around us,” said well-known preacher Alireza Panahian. “We cannot simply ignore the evidence.”

Because the Reappearance scenario dictates that when the Imam of Time or Mahdi returns, there will be no need for the clergy to “cover” as his deputies any longer, senior clergymen are not always wholly enthusiastic about the specifics of the narrative — though they would never dispute the overall assumption that it will happen. 

Ayatollah Khamenei no doubt enjoys all of this, and the fact that he potentially plays a crucial role in the prophecies and their outcomes. Despite some of his closest allies taking part in speculation and reading the signs, he does not encourage such behavior — at least not publicly. No one should rush to the conclusion that the current tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are the result of a messianic interpretations of events, he and others seem to be saying. But the tensions have flared. And any prophesy that condemns the enemy to the losing side of history is a welcome addition to the arsenal.