The former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami is still an iconic figure for reformists in the country. As such, the statement he issued to mark the beginning of the academic year in Iran has been interpreted as an early missive in the upcoming presidential election campaign.
In a video message, Khatami stressed that universities are inherently political spaces and students are idealistic in nature. He called for the release of imprisoned workers, teachers, students, and professors and the lifting of restrictions on political activists, as well as the de-securitization of university campuses.
Khatami, who served as Iran’s fifth president from 1997 to 2005, also reiterated his longstanding opposition to the politics of his successor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, decrying this government’s methods as “the distribution of poverty”.
“Development without justice,” he said, “means driving the middle classes into deprivation, and just a small part of society benefitting from its facilities. Justice without development means treating the nation’s capital as a disposable asset and making all of society poorer."
Speculation Over Potential Presidential Bid
Reformist commentators online picked up on Khatami’s emphasis on the “pivotal” role of justice, especially educational justice. This had been a missing element during Khatami’s tenure as president and in this period, much of the established left defected to the Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani camp. Khatami's emphasis on justice also chimed in with current anxieties about the state of Iranian society, racked by economic problems.
Khatami's message came after a period of protracted absence from the political arena, reinforcing speculation that the ex-statesman might be planning to run for office in the 2021 presidential election.
Taqi Rahmani, an Iranian journalist and nationalist-religious activist, declared on Twitter that if the purpose of Khatami's message had been to “announce his presence”, that this kind presence “would not be effective" – and if the purpose had been to "announce a new line”, that the message was “completely useless”.
"Khatami did not create the reformist movement,” he went on. “He became the head of the reformist government. The two are different. Those who create strategies do not necessarily take office.”
There is a notable absence of known reformist candidates in the upcoming presidential elections. Last year Khatami attempted to persuade Khamenei to approve a wide range of reformist candidates and encourage participation in the 2020 legislative elections, but his intervention failed to produce results.
Given the stagnant political situation in Iran it seems there is precious little hope for a reformist renaissance. It may be that Khatami has the 2005 presidential election in mind, in which the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front threatened to boycott the election if the preferred candidate and favourite for the student vote, Mustafa Moin, was not allowed to run. But the outcome of that election, too, was ultimately a defeat for reformists.
Is There Any Hope Left for a Reformist Revival?
The demonstrations of December 2017 and November 2019 created a charged political atmosphere inside and outside of Iran and gave many protesters fresh hope for a change of regime. But long-time reformists are less optimistic. reformists' analysis, however, is different. Leading political scientist Alireza Alavitabar, for instance, has warned the government will simply suppress the protests in the short term.
Members of the reformist camp have yet to recognize the legitimacy of either the 10th parliament or Rouhani’s government. They have also dismissed the work of those who came to power by “imitating” Khatami.
In this stifling situation, it is not at all apparent what kinds of promises, commitments or incentives the reformist camp could possibly use to encourage supporters to participate in yet another Iranian election. It may be that they seek a repeat of the 2009 election – or are waiting to see if the outcome of next year’s US presidential election has any impact on the political climate in Iran.
With the potential exception of Khatami, the reformist camp also lacks a credible figurehead that all of its various factions agree on and can secure the approval of Iran’s Guardians Council (and the popular vote). Many continue to believe that Khatami is as popular as ever and their only hope for a sea-change in Iranian politics.
It is hard to believe that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will allow a reformist candidate to ever come to the fore as was the case in 2009. Not once in the past eight years has be permitted either of the two former presidents to return to power. Khatami is still banned from most public, media and political activities and even quasi-reformist news outlets have not published his latest message. The state-controlled and hardline media, meanwhile, have ignored it entirely.
Related coverage:
Elections End Any Pretense of Democracy in Iran
Mass Disqualification of Parliamentary Candidates
Khamenei Shoots Down Khatami’s Push for National Reconciliation
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