First Election Results: Good News for Rouhani?

Early results for Friday’s parliamentary elections indicate that there was no clear swing to either the reformists or the principlists, with neither gaining an overall majority. However, because President Rouhani  has bolstered considerable support among Iran’s principlist politicians, it is expected that the results will deliver greater support for his administration. 

Voters went to the polls on February 26 to elect 290 members to parliament. Domestic media have so far announced the results for about 180 seats. According to the latest reports, the principlists — the more extreme of which are considered hardliners — won 55 percent of the seats. Although this represents a fragile majority, a significant number of principlists support Rouhani and his administration, so Rouhani’s hopes for more support in parliament could be realized. Rouhani allies and supporters were reported to have won 35 percent of the seats. Independent candidates without reformist or principlist affiliation won 15 percent of the vote. 

In more than 15 percent of districts, a second round of voting has been declared. To be elected to parliament, candidates must win at least 25 percent of the votes. In the second round, supporters of President Rouhani have a chance to gain ground against hardliners. And some of the independent victories could also mean greater support for Rouhani too.  

Overall, results indicate that Rouhani’s government have won more support in parliament, and that its policies will be more readily accepted, particularly when it comes to economic and administrative policies. But because these newly-elected parliamentarians are so diverse in their policies and outlook, it is clear that differences over foreign policy and cultural, social and domestic issues will remain – meaning Rouhani’s battles in parliament are not over. 

Early results also suggest ongoing tensions within the principlist and hardliner camps. Currently they are divided into two groups —supporters and opponents of Rouhani — and this division will continue well into Iran’s next parliament. This time, however, Rouhani’s supporters are more organized.

The Interior Ministry issued a statement that voter turnout was 33 million — or 60 percent of Iranian citizens eligible to vote, which is said to be around 55 million.

Turnout was four percent less than at the last elections. In Tehran, the turnout was 42 percent, nine percent higher than the last parliamentary elections. Yet government officials were expecting a higher turnout following on from the success of the nuclear agreement, a hope that was not realized.

One significant outcome of the elections was that current speaker of parliament Ali Larijani — a supporter of the Rouhani administration — came in second in his district in Qom, trailing his hardliner rival by a considerable number of votes. In the last elections, he came in first. This outcome could potentially have a detrimental effect on his political position in parliament. Although he is an establishment figure and firm principlist, Larijani disappointed hardliners when he supported the nuclear deal. Larijani’s performance in yesterday’s polls suggests that he has been the nuclear deal’s most prominent victim. Despite this, he will most likely remain speaker of parliament.  

Hardliner candidates in some of Iran’s smaller towns were defeated, many of whom had put themselves forward as staunch opponents of Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and his nuclear deal. This was not the case across Iran, however, as a number of hardliners with similar agendas were successful, suggesting that the impact of the nuclear deal was not as significant as election forecasters thought it might be. 

This article was originally published on February 27.

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