Inflation of more than 100 per cent, massive unemployment, and delays in monthly pension payments have paved the way for a sharp rise in petty theft, shoplifting, muggings, and pickpocketing. Around four million recently unemployed people have joined an already 12 per cent unemployed population. All in all, locksmiths are doing well. Their business has become highly lucrative.
Hamid, a skilled locksmith who lives in the low-income district of old Naziabad in southern Tehran and works in a shop in a wealthier western area, says: “From my home to here, I work as a taxi driver. Then I work in the shop. We sell and install expensive locks. Business is good, thanks to the increase in burglaries. Russian, Hungarian, and other European-standard locks are in high demand. We reassure our customers, mostly well-off people, that their properties are secure. At least we make it harder for thieves and burglars.”
Saeed, who owns an air-conditioning shop near the former American embassy, tells me: “A few days ago, several large valves displayed on the pavement in front of the shop were stolen. CCTV helped us identify the thief’s car. Some police officers stationed nearby assisted us. Of course, we had to pay them something, as they no longer operate from permanent offices.
“The thief, a 35-year-old man, apparently addicted to drugs, told us openly: ‘My wife needed expensive intestinal surgery. I had to get the money. I am a plumber, so I stole the valves, sold them, and paid for the operation. Now I am ready to go to prison.’ “Did you report him?” I ask. Laughing, Saeed replies: “No. We found his father. He said, ‘I am ashamed of my son, but I can only pay seven million toman, about £35.’” “Did you accept it?” “Yes. The stolen goods were worth more than fifty million toman, around £250. I suppose I contributed to funding someone’s surgery.”
On Thursday, air defence systems were activated several times, for no clear reason, both before dawn and again at around 21:00. On Friday morning, I speak with people standing in a queue at a bakery. Almost everyone is discussing the previous night’s air defence activity in western Tehran. A minor scuffle breaks out between two elderly men over their place in the queue.
One woman says: “The whole country is in chaos, and these men are arguing over bread, which now costs three times as much as it did last year.” Another woman adds: “Soon we will be fighting each other over bread and basic food.” A young man wearing a cap, who appears to have just woken up, joins the conversation: “Let’s see what happens if Ahmad Vahidi, the IRGC commander, is removed. Then maybe a deal will be reached and food imports will resume.”
A man in his forties, with a long beard, responds cynically: “For decades, we have not learned how to determine our own destiny. And those abroad are no better than we are.”
An elderly man, leaning on his cane, says: “England, America, and the Jews in America and Israel do not allow us to be independent. They only want to humiliate us.” The young man replies: “Independent from whom? Countries like China and South Korea have relations with the US and still function. Independence is about thinking for ourselves. We need to rethink what independence, freedom, and nationalism mean. Political Islam here has mixed old ideological ideas that only confuse us. We need to move beyond them.”
Later, I call an old friend, a family doctor, who lives in a high-rise building in Shahrak-e Gharb, in north-western Tehran. After sharing the debates I heard in the bakery, I ask him for his view. “In my clinic in a low-income area,” he says, “I often feel like a confessor. My patients come not only for treatment but also to talk. I hear the same range of opinions every day.” “Do you think people are confused and disoriented?” I ask.
“Yes,” he replies. “They always have been. From time to time, they take to the streets, but overall, we remain a fragmented and politically inexperienced society. The diaspora is not much different.” He continues: “In the building where I live, many residents have dual nationality. Their children live abroad and are politically active, while their parents move between countries. I do not see a realistic chance of consensus among the middle classes about the future of this country.”
After ending the call, I read the latest news: “Erfan Kiani, identified as one of the main figures in the unrest in Isfahan, was executed at dawn today.” It is painful for any observer to see that heavy-handed repression and daily executions can intimidate dissatisfied and oppressed people, at least in the short term.
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