Gold and Currency Spike as Semi-Closed Markets Enter “Wait-and-See” Mode

On the tenth day of the war, with much of Iran’s markets either shut down or only partially operating, exchange-rate tracking websites show the U.S. dollar climbing past 166,000 tomans and the euro moving into the 190,000-toman bracket. Meanwhile, the price of 18-karat gold has risen above 20.1 million tomans per gram.

This comes even though most domestic media outlets had reported the dollar rate in the range of 150,000 tomans yesterday.

However, under wartime conditions and amid a heavy recession in transactions, “agreed-upon prices” (negotiated rates) suggest that the gold and currency markets are, more than ever, in a state of “waiting.”

In Iran, when official markets shut down during times of crisis, “agreed prices” begin to take shape. These are informal rates settled directly between buyers and sellers, either on the street or through Telegram channels. In many cases, they capture the harsher economic reality more honestly than the figures reported by state-controlled media outlets.

In such conditions, many market participants choose to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach, holding back from major transactions. As a result, the rates being announced do not show the daily average of actual completed trades.

At present, much of the trading that is taking place involves individuals who either urgently need rial liquidity or fear that the dollar’s price could fall once markets fully reopen. They settle on a rate among themselves, meaning transactions are carried out outside any standard or officially recognized market price.

Even though some prices appear to be easing, underlying economic pressures are still driving the “intrinsic rate” of the dollar higher. As a result, many traders argue that as long as the war continues and the main markets remain only partially open, it is too early to identify any clear or stable trend.